Football · Colombia Primera A · 30/09, 03:05

Prediction: Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios

Team pages: Independiente Medellin · Millonarios

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.54Total

Independiente Medellin1.36

Millonarios1.18

1X2

40% 29% 31%

Independiente Medellin Draw Millonarios

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Independiente Medellin 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWLWWLDW

Millonarios 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WDWDLDDWWD

Head-to-head

Independiente Medellin 3–2–1 Millonarios (6 last)

Millonarios0-0Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin1-0Millonarios
Millonarios0-1Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin1-1Millonarios
Millonarios5-0Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin2-1Millonarios

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Independiente Medellin: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Independiente Medellin	Millonarios
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.3	1.5 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.7	2.6 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.5	5.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.84

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:26

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.29 → 2.32▲	Pinn 2.32
X	3.18 → 3.21▲	Pinn 3.21
2	3.11 → 3.14▲	Pinn 3.14

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
03:28 +15’	2.29	3.18	3.11
04:30 +56’	2.32▲	3.21▲	3.14▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Medellin 3–2–1 Millonarios

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/02/26 Colombia Primera A	Millonarios	0-0 HT 0-0	Independiente Medellin
04/08/25 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Medellin	1-0 HT 1-0	Millonarios
16/02/25 Colombia Primera A	Millonarios	0-1 HT 0-1	Independiente Medellin
19/07/24 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Medellin	1-1 HT 1-0	Millonarios
21/01/24 Colombia Primera A	Millonarios	5-0 HT 3-0	Independiente Medellin
01/12/23 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Medellin	2-1 HT 2-0	Millonarios

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	America de Cali	11	7	3	1	22	6	24
2	Atletico Bucaramanga	10	5	5	0	17	9	20
3	Millonarios	12	5	5	2	16	9	20
4	Atletico Nacional Medellin	9	6	1	2	18	9	19
5	Independiente Medellin	9	6	1	2	17	11	19
6	Deportivo Cali	10	5	3	2	15	8	18
7	Deportes Tolima	10	5	2	3	13	11	17
8	Independiente Santa Fe	10	4	4	2	16	11	16
9	Llaneros	10	4	2	4	13	12	14
10	Once Caldas	11	3	3	5	14	15	12
11	Aguilas Doradas	9	2	5	2	12	13	11
12	Internacional de Bogota	11	2	5	4	13	17	11
13	Boyaca Chico	10	3	2	5	10	18	11
14	Cucuta Deportivo	10	2	3	5	9	18	9
15	Fortaleza CEIF	10	1	5	4	11	16	8
16	Deportivo Pasto	11	2	2	7	9	18	8
17	Alianza	10	2	2	6	9	20	8
18	Deportivo Pereira	8	1	4	3	6	11	7
19	Jaguares de Cordoba	9	1	4	4	10	16	7
20	Junior	8	1	3	4	12	14	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Independiente Medellin	Millonarios
Boyaca Chico	1-2 L	3-0 W
Deportivo Pereira	3-0 W	1-1 D
Llaneros	2-1 W	2-0 W
Cucuta Deportivo	0-1 L	2-1 W
Deportivo Cali	1-0 W	1-1 D
Deportivo Pasto	3-2 W	2-0 W
Aguilas Doradas	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 3 L	4 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Millonarios (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Independiente Medellin

LWWWLWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/09	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-1	7	6	W
18/09	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	1-2	2-2	8	6	D
13/09	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-2	1	5	L
04/09	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	0-0	3-0	4	6	W
30/08	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	2-1	2-1	2	8	W
23/08	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
05/08	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	2-0	3-2	2	5	W
02/08	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
25/07	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	2-2	3-2	4	7	W
03/05	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-2	10	8	L

Millonarios

WDWDLDDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/09	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
19/09	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
14/09	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	0-0	2-1	5	2	W
11/09	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-1	7	10	D
07/09	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
03/09	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-3	8	8	L
31/08	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
28/08	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-0	5	7	W
22/08	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	3	10	D
05/08	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-0	8	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente Medellin win (40%). Probabilities: Independiente Medellin 40%, draw 29%, Millonarios 31%.

How many goals are expected in Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios?

The model expects 2.54 goals (Independiente Medellin 1.36 · Millonarios 1.18), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.