Football · Colombia Primera A · 01/10, 03:00

Prediction: Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Junior

Team pages: Atletico Nacional Medellin · Junior

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Atletico Nacional Medellin1.98

Junior1.04

1X2

58% 23% 18%

Atletico Nacional Medellin Draw Junior

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Nacional Medellin 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWWWLD

Junior 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLDLDDLW

Head-to-head

Atletico Nacional Medellin 2–1–3 Junior (6 last)

Atletico Nacional Medellin1-0Junior
Junior3-0Atletico Nacional Medellin
Junior0-4Atletico Nacional Medellin
Junior2-1Atletico Nacional Medellin
Atletico Nacional Medellin1-1Junior
Junior2-1Atletico Nacional Medellin

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Nacional Medellin (rating 1557 vs 1470).
H2H favours Junior: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Nacional Medellin	Junior
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.9	1.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 7.5	2.3 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.5	6 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.86

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:27

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.49▲	Pinn 1.49
X	3.68 → 3.72▲	Pinn 3.72
2	7.36 → 7.56▲	Pinn 7.56

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
03:30 +14’	1.48	3.68	7.36
04:30 +57’	1.49▲	3.72▲	7.56▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Nacional Medellin 2–1–3 Junior

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/06/26 Colombia Primera A	Atletico Nacional Medellin	1-0 HT 0-0	Junior
03/06/26 Colombia Primera A	Junior	3-0 HT 2-0	Atletico Nacional Medellin
11/03/26 Colombia Primera A	Junior	0-4 HT 0-1	Atletico Nacional Medellin
01/12/25 Colombia Primera A	Junior	2-1 HT 0-1	Atletico Nacional Medellin
27/11/25 Colombia Primera A	Atletico Nacional Medellin	1-1 HT 0-1	Junior
14/11/25 Colombia Primera A	Junior	2-1 HT 0-1	Atletico Nacional Medellin

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	America de Cali	11	7	3	1	22	6	24
2	Atletico Bucaramanga	10	5	5	0	17	9	20
3	Millonarios	12	5	5	2	16	9	20
4	Atletico Nacional Medellin	9	6	1	2	18	9	19
5	Independiente Medellin	9	6	1	2	17	11	19
6	Deportivo Cali	10	5	3	2	15	8	18
7	Deportes Tolima	10	5	2	3	13	11	17
8	Independiente Santa Fe	10	4	4	2	16	11	16
9	Llaneros	10	4	2	4	13	12	14
10	Once Caldas	11	3	3	5	14	15	12
11	Aguilas Doradas	9	2	5	2	12	13	11
12	Internacional de Bogota	11	2	5	4	13	17	11
13	Boyaca Chico	10	3	2	5	10	18	11
14	Cucuta Deportivo	10	2	3	5	9	18	9
15	Fortaleza CEIF	10	1	5	4	11	16	8
16	Deportivo Pasto	11	2	2	7	9	18	8
17	Alianza	10	2	2	6	9	20	8
18	Deportivo Pereira	8	1	4	3	6	11	7
19	Jaguares de Cordoba	9	1	4	4	10	16	7
20	Junior	8	1	3	4	12	14	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Nacional Medellin	Junior
Millonarios	1-1 D	0-1 L
Alianza	5-1 W	0-1 L
Fortaleza CEIF	2-1 W	4-1 W
America de Cali	0-1 L	2-4 L
Jaguares de Cordoba	3-0 W	3-3 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Nacional Medellin (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Nacional Medellin

WWLWWWWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/09	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
21/09	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	0-2	0-2	9	7	L
17/09	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	1-1	3-2	9	3	W
13/09	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
30/08	Alianza Colombia Primera A	3-1	5-1	6	5	W
27/08	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-1	3	8	W
23/08	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-1	2-1	7	5	W
10/08	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	13	7	L
02/08	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	3-0	3-0	4	3	W
09/06	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	13	6	W

Junior

WLLLDLDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	2-0	4-1	1	5	W
13/09	Alianza Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	6	9	L
06/09	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	1-1	3-3	7	6	D
30/08	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
27/08	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-4	2	8	L
24/08	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	4	11	D
02/08	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
26/07	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-2	1-2	7	3	L
09/06	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
03/06	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	2-0	3-0	6	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Junior?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Nacional Medellin win (58%). Probabilities: Atletico Nacional Medellin 58%, draw 23%, Junior 18%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Junior?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Atletico Nacional Medellin 1.98 · Junior 1.04), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Junior?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.