Football · Colombia Primera A · 27/09, 23:00

Prediction: Jaguares de Cordoba vs Alianza

Team pages: Jaguares de Cordoba · Alianza

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.49Total

Jaguares de Cordoba1.38

Alianza1.11

1X2

41% 30% 28%

Jaguares de Cordoba Draw Alianza

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Jaguares de Cordoba 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DWLLLDWDDD

Alianza 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLLDLLLWWL

Head-to-head

Jaguares de Cordoba 0–1–2 Alianza (3 last)

Alianza1-0Jaguares de Cordoba
Jaguares de Cordoba0-0Alianza
Alianza2-1Jaguares de Cordoba

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Jaguares de Cordoba 1466 · Alianza 1459

	Jaguares de Cordoba	Draw	Alianza
Our model	42%	29%	29%
Market	41%	31%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Alianza: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Jaguares de Cordoba	Alianza
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.6	0.9 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.6 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.7	1.5 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.1	5.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.00

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 21.75

Under 22.05

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:12 +4’	2.25	3.00	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Jaguares de Cordoba 0–1–2 Alianza

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/03/26 Colombia Primera A	Alianza	1-0 HT 1-0	Jaguares de Cordoba
10/11/24 Colombia Primera A	Jaguares de Cordoba	0-0 HT 0-0	Alianza
21/04/24 Colombia Primera A	Alianza	2-1 HT 0-1	Jaguares de Cordoba

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	America de Cali	10	6	3	1	21	6	21
2	Millonarios	11	5	4	2	15	8	19
3	Atletico Nacional Medellin	8	6	0	2	17	8	18
4	Atletico Bucaramanga	9	4	5	0	14	8	17
5	Deportes Tolima	10	5	2	3	13	11	17
6	Independiente Santa Fe	9	4	4	1	16	10	16
7	Independiente Medellin	8	5	1	2	15	10	16
8	Deportivo Cali	9	4	3	2	14	8	15
9	Llaneros	10	4	2	4	13	12	14
10	Once Caldas	10	3	3	4	13	12	12
11	Aguilas Doradas	8	2	5	1	12	12	11
12	Internacional de Bogota	11	2	5	4	13	17	11
13	Cucuta Deportivo	10	2	3	5	9	18	9
14	Fortaleza CEIF	10	1	5	4	11	16	8
15	Deportivo Pasto	10	2	2	6	9	15	8
16	Alianza	10	2	2	6	9	20	8
17	Boyaca Chico	9	2	2	5	7	18	8
18	Jaguares de Cordoba	8	1	4	3	9	14	7
19	Deportivo Pereira	8	1	4	3	6	11	7
20	Junior	8	1	3	4	12	14	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Jaguares de Cordoba	Alianza
Fortaleza CEIF	2-2 D	1-1 D
Junior	3-3 D	1-0 W
America de Cali	2-2 D	0-3 L
Boyaca Chico	1-0 W	2-1 W
Atletico Nacional Medellin	0-3 L	1-5 L
Cucuta Deportivo	2-0 W	0-1 L
Atletico Bucaramanga	2-2 D	2-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Jaguares de Cordoba (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Jaguares de Cordoba

DWLLLDWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-1	2-2	5	4	D
06/09	Junior Colombia Primera A	1-1	3-3	5	6	D
29/08	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	2-1	2-2	3	7	D
21/08	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-0	4	10	W
10/08	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	2	8	D
06/08	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
02/08	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-3	0-3	8	3	L
25/07	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-2	3	7	L
02/05	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	0-0	2-0	6	6	W
25/04	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-2	0	4	D

Alianza

DLLDLLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-2	1-4	6	5	L
16/09	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	2-1	2-1	2	4	W
13/09	Junior Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-0	6	9	W
03/09	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	0-2	0-3	4	2	L
30/08	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	1-3	1-5	2	5	L
26/08	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	5	11	L
22/08	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
09/08	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	1-2	2-3	3	6	L
01/08	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-2	2	5	L
27/07	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-1	5	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Jaguares de Cordoba vs Alianza?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Jaguares de Cordoba win (41%). Probabilities: Jaguares de Cordoba 41%, draw 30%, Alianza 28%.

How many goals are expected in Jaguares de Cordoba vs Alianza?

The model expects 2.49 goals (Jaguares de Cordoba 1.38 · Alianza 1.11), with a 58% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Jaguares de Cordoba vs Alianza?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.