Football · Bulgaria First League · 20/09, 16:45
Prediction: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia
Team pages: Lokomotiv Plovdiv · CSKA Sofia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.25Total
Lokomotiv Plovdiv0.65
CSKA Sofia1.59
1X2
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Draw
CSKA Sofia
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 61%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
0-1 16%
Recent form · 10 last
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
CSKA Sofia
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
2–2–2
CSKA Sofia
(6 last)
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv1-1CSKA Sofia
- CSKA Sofia2-1Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv1-0CSKA Sofia
- CSKA Sofia2-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv2-2CSKA Sofia
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv1-0CSKA Sofia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1440 · CSKA Sofia 1568
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Draw | CSKA Sofia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 14% | 27% | 59% |
| Market | 15% | 25% | 60% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CSKA Sofia (rating 1440 vs 1568).
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | CSKA Sofia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.4 / 1.2 | 2.3 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.7 | 1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 40/60/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.2 | 3.1 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0.1 | 4.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2–2–2 CSKA Sofia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/05/26 Bulgaria Cup | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1-1 HT 0-1 | CSKA Sofia |
| 03/12/25 Bulgaria First League | CSKA Sofia | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
| 02/08/25 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1-0 HT 0-0 | CSKA Sofia |
| 12/04/25 Bulgaria First League | CSKA Sofia | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
| 02/11/24 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 2-2 HT 1-1 | CSKA Sofia |
| 26/05/24 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1-0 HT 1-0 | CSKA Sofia |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 4 | 25 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 6 | 23 |
| 3 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 7 | 23 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 22 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 17 |
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 16 |
| 7 | Slavia Sofia | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 11 |
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 10 |
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | 9 |
| 10 | Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 8 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 6 |
| 12 | Cherno More Varna | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 20 | 6 |
| 13 | Dunav Ruse | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 5 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 4 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | CSKA Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Botev Plovdiv | 0-2 L | 3-2 W |
| Cherno More Varna | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Arda Kardzhali | 0-1 L | 4-1 W |
| Dunav Ruse | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Spartak Varna | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Septemvri Sofia | 2-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Ludogorets Razgrad | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 5 L | 5 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: CSKA Sofia (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 06/09 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 28/08 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 24/08 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 16/08 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 11 | 5 | L |
| 07/08 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 03/08 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 10 | L |
| 26/07 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 18/07 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 29/05 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
CSKA Sofia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 12/09 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 05/09 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 30/08 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 0 | 8 | W |
| 16/08 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 02/08 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 27/07 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 17 | 5 | W |
| 20/07 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 25/05 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia?
According to our model, the most likely result is an CSKA Sofia win (60%). Probabilities: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 15%, draw 26%, CSKA Sofia 60%.
How many goals are expected in Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia?
The model expects 2.25 goals (Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.65 · CSKA Sofia 1.59), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.