Football · Bulgaria First League · 19/09, 15:30

Prediction: Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv

Team pages: Septemvri Sofia · Botev Plovdiv

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.55Total

Septemvri Sofia1.01

Botev Plovdiv1.54

1X2

24% 27% 49%

Septemvri Sofia Draw Botev Plovdiv

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Septemvri Sofia 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDDLLLWWDL

Botev Plovdiv 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LDLWWLLLWW

Head-to-head

Septemvri Sofia 2–4 Botev Plovdiv (6 last)

Botev Plovdiv2-0Septemvri Sofia
Septemvri Sofia1-3Botev Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv3-0Septemvri Sofia
Septemvri Sofia1-0Botev Plovdiv
Septemvri Sofia2-1Botev Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv3-1Septemvri Sofia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Septemvri Sofia 1454 · Botev Plovdiv 1519

	Septemvri Sofia	Draw	Botev Plovdiv
Our model	24%	28%	48%
Market	24%	27%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Botev Plovdiv (rating 1454 vs 1519).
H2H favours Botev Plovdiv: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Septemvri Sofia	Botev Plovdiv
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.4	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.5	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.3	1.5 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.4	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.75

X3.40

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:16 +1’	3.75	3.40	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Septemvri Sofia 2–0–4 Botev Plovdiv

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/03/26 Bulgaria First League	Botev Plovdiv	2-0 HT 0-0	Septemvri Sofia
21/09/25 Bulgaria First League	Septemvri Sofia	1-3 HT 1-1	Botev Plovdiv
12/04/25 Bulgaria First League	Botev Plovdiv	3-0 HT 1-0	Septemvri Sofia
04/11/24 Bulgaria First League	Septemvri Sofia	1-0 HT 1-0	Botev Plovdiv
10/03/23 Bulgaria First League	Septemvri Sofia	2-1 HT 1-1	Botev Plovdiv
26/08/22 Bulgaria First League	Botev Plovdiv	3-1 HT 1-0	Septemvri Sofia

Standings · Bulgaria First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Levski Sofia	9	8	1	0	21	4	25
2	CSKA Sofia	8	6	2	0	21	6	20
3	Ludogorets Razgrad	8	6	2	0	14	6	20
4	CSKA 1948 Sofia	9	6	1	2	17	9	19
5	Arda Kardzhali	9	5	1	3	14	11	16
6	Botev Plovdiv	9	4	1	4	13	14	13
7	Slavia Sofia	9	2	5	2	8	6	11
8	Spartak Varna	9	2	4	3	10	14	10
9	Botev Vratsa	9	2	2	5	7	17	8
10	Septemvri Sofia	8	2	2	4	7	13	8
11	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	9	2	0	7	4	12	6
12	Cherno More Varna	9	1	2	6	10	19	5
13	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	8	0	4	4	10	16	4
14	Dunav Ruse	9	1	1	7	8	17	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Septemvri Sofia	Botev Plovdiv
Botev Vratsa	2-3 L	0-1 L
Spartak Varna	1-0 W	3-2 W
CSKA Sofia	0-3 L	2-3 L
Levski Sofia	0-3 L	1-3 L
Lokomotiv Plovdiv	1-2 L	2-0 W
Arda Kardzhali	1-1 D	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Botev Plovdiv (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Septemvri Sofia

WDDLLLWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League	0-1	2-3	9	3	L
28/08	Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-1	2	8	D
23/08	CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
17/08	Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
09/08	CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-1	0-3	2	4	L
01/08	Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-1	0-3	0	4	L
26/07	Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	1-1	1-2	7	4	L
18/07	Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
22/05	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria First League	1-0	1-1	2	15	D
18/05	Beroe Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-0	2	4	W

Botev Plovdiv

LDLWWLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	2-0	2-0	2	5	W
04/09	Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League	2-0	3-2	2	4	W
30/08	Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-3	6	5	L
24/08	Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
15/08	Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League	0-2	0-2	1	1	L
10/08	Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League	3-0	3-2	4	2	W
01/08	Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
27/07	CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-1	2-3	5	5	L
21/07	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
25/05	Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	1-1	1-2	6	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Botev Plovdiv win (49%). Probabilities: Septemvri Sofia 24%, draw 27%, Botev Plovdiv 49%.

How many goals are expected in Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv?

The model expects 2.55 goals (Septemvri Sofia 1.01 · Botev Plovdiv 1.54), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.