Football · Bulgaria First League · 19/09, 18:00
Prediction: Arda Kardzhali vs Cherno More Varna
Team pages: Arda Kardzhali · Cherno More Varna
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.51Total
Arda Kardzhali1.81
Cherno More Varna0.69
1X2
Arda Kardzhali
Draw
Cherno More Varna
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Arda Kardzhali
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Cherno More Varna
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Arda Kardzhali
2–3–1
Cherno More Varna
(6 last)
- Cherno More Varna2-3Arda Kardzhali
- Arda Kardzhali0-0Cherno More Varna
- Cherno More Varna0-0Arda Kardzhali
- Cherno More Varna0-3Arda Kardzhali
- Arda Kardzhali0-1Cherno More Varna
- Arda Kardzhali0-0Cherno More Varna
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arda Kardzhali (rating 1529 vs 1416).
- H2H favours Arda Kardzhali: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Arda Kardzhali | Cherno More Varna | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.3 | 1.2 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 3.8 | 2.5 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.3 | 5.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Arda Kardzhali 2–3–1 Cherno More Varna
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/26 Bulgaria First League | Cherno More Varna | 2-3 HT 1-0 | Arda Kardzhali |
| 03/05/26 Bulgaria First League | Arda Kardzhali | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Cherno More Varna |
| 04/03/26 Bulgaria First League | Cherno More Varna | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Arda Kardzhali |
| 12/12/25 Bulgaria Cup | Cherno More Varna | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Arda Kardzhali |
| 22/09/25 Bulgaria First League | Arda Kardzhali | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Cherno More Varna |
| 18/05/25 Bulgaria First League | Arda Kardzhali | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Cherno More Varna |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 4 | 24 |
| 2 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 6 | 20 |
| 3 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 9 | 19 |
| 4 | CSKA Sofia | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 5 | 17 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 7 | 16 |
| 6 | Slavia Sofia | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 10 |
| 7 | Botev Plovdiv | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 14 | 10 |
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 9 |
| 9 | Septemvri Sofia | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 8 |
| 10 | Botev Vratsa | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 7 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 6 |
| 12 | Cherno More Varna | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 5 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 4 |
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 17 | 4 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Arda Kardzhali | Cherno More Varna |
|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia | 1-4 L | 1-3 L |
| Botev Plovdiv | 2-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Botev Vratsa | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 3-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Dunav Ruse | 2-0 W | 3-1 W |
| CSKA 1948 Sofia | 1-2 L | 1-4 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 3 L | 1 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Arda Kardzhali (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arda Kardzhali
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 04/09 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 31/08 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 24/08 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 17/08 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 31/07 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 24/07 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 18/07 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 25/05 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
Cherno More Varna
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 8 | D |
| 06/09 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 30/08 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 21/08 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 14/08 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 09/08 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 01/08 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 26/07 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 19/07 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 25/05 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arda Kardzhali vs Cherno More Varna?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Arda Kardzhali win (63%). Probabilities: Arda Kardzhali 63%, draw 24%, Cherno More Varna 13%.
How many goals are expected in Arda Kardzhali vs Cherno More Varna?
The model expects 2.51 goals (Arda Kardzhali 1.81 · Cherno More Varna 0.69), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Arda Kardzhali vs Cherno More Varna?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.