Football · Bulgaria First League · 20/09, 14:15

Prediction: Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia

Team pages: Spartak Varna · Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

Spartak Varna1.38

Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia1.41

1X2

35% 28% 37%

Spartak Varna Draw Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Spartak Varna 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDWWLLLDDD

Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

WLDLDLLDLD

Head-to-head

Spartak Varna 2–3–1 Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia (6 last)

Spartak Varna3-0Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
Spartak Varna2-2Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia0-0Spartak Varna
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia2-1Spartak Varna
Spartak Varna3-2Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia0-0Spartak Varna

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Spartak Varna 1495 · Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia 1445

	Spartak Varna	Draw	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
Our model	35%	28%	37%
Market	35%	28%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Spartak Varna (rating 1495 vs 1445).
H2H favours Spartak Varna: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Spartak Varna	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	1.2 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 2.7	2.3 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.30

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:21 +5’	2.60	3.30	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Spartak Varna 2–3–1 Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/05/26 Bulgaria First League	Spartak Varna	3-0 HT 2-0	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
13/02/26 Bulgaria First League	Spartak Varna	2-2 HT 1-0	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
22/08/25 Bulgaria First League	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	0-0 HT 0-0	Spartak Varna
28/03/25 Bulgaria First League	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	2-1 HT 1-0	Spartak Varna
06/10/24 Bulgaria First League	Spartak Varna	3-2 HT 1-2	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
18/11/23 Bulgaria Cup	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	0-0 HT 0-0	Spartak Varna

Standings · Bulgaria First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Levski Sofia	9	8	1	0	21	4	25
2	Ludogorets Razgrad	9	7	2	0	16	7	23
3	CSKA Sofia	8	6	2	0	21	6	20
4	CSKA 1948 Sofia	9	6	1	2	17	9	19
5	Arda Kardzhali	9	5	1	3	14	11	16
6	Botev Plovdiv	9	4	1	4	13	14	13
7	Slavia Sofia	9	2	5	2	8	6	11
8	Spartak Varna	9	2	4	3	10	14	10
9	Botev Vratsa	9	2	2	5	7	17	8
10	Septemvri Sofia	9	2	2	5	8	15	8
11	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	9	2	0	7	4	12	6
12	Cherno More Varna	9	1	2	6	10	19	5
13	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	8	0	4	4	10	16	4
14	Dunav Ruse	9	1	1	7	8	17	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Spartak Varna	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
Slavia Sofia	0-0 D	1-1 D
Ludogorets Razgrad	1-1 D	1-2 L
Levski Sofia	0-6 L	1-2 L
Botev Plovdiv	2-3 L	1-1 D
Cherno More Varna	3-0 W	2-2 D
CSKA 1948 Sofia	2-2 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	0 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Spartak Varna (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Spartak Varna

WDWWLLLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
05/09	CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-1	1-1	2	5	D
30/08	Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-1	1	5	D
22/08	Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-2	0-6	1	2	L
17/08	Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
10/08	Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	0-3	2-3	1	2	L
03/08	Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	1-0	1-0	1	10	W
26/07	Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League	1-0	3-0	1	4	W
17/07	CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League	2-0	2-2	5	3	D
22/05	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League	2-0	3-0	6	3	W

Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia

WLDLDLLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League	0-2	2-2	5	8	D
06/09	Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League	1-1	1-2	2	7	L
31/08	Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League	0-1	2-2	7	5	D
17/08	Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League	0-2	1-3	2	4	L
08/08	CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-3	7	5	L
31/07	Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-1	1-1	3	5	D
25/07	Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-2	5	3	L
21/07	Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
22/05	Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League	0-2	0-3	7	3	L
18/05	Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-0	2-0	10	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia win (37%). Probabilities: Spartak Varna 35%, draw 28%, Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia 37%.

How many goals are expected in Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia?

The model expects 2.78 goals (Spartak Varna 1.38 · Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia 1.41), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.