Football · Bulgaria First League · 14/09, 19:30
Prediction: Ludogorets Razgrad vs Septemvri Sofia
Team pages: Ludogorets Razgrad · Septemvri Sofia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.91Total
Ludogorets Razgrad2.36
Septemvri Sofia0.55
1X2
Ludogorets Razgrad
Draw
Septemvri Sofia
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
2-0 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Ludogorets Razgrad
7-3-0 (W-D-L)
Septemvri Sofia
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ludogorets Razgrad
5–1–0
Septemvri Sofia
(6 last)
- Ludogorets Razgrad1-0Septemvri Sofia
- Septemvri Sofia1-3Ludogorets Razgrad
- Septemvri Sofia0-2Ludogorets Razgrad
- Ludogorets Razgrad5-0Septemvri Sofia
- Ludogorets Razgrad0-0Septemvri Sofia
- Septemvri Sofia0-2Ludogorets Razgrad
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ludogorets Razgrad 1599 · Septemvri Sofia 1471
| Ludogorets Razgrad | Draw | Septemvri Sofia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 77% | 17% | 6% |
| Market | 78% | 14% | 7% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.91 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ludogorets Razgrad (rating 1599 vs 1471).
- H2H favours Ludogorets Razgrad: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ludogorets Razgrad | Septemvri Sofia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.6 | 0.9 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.3 | 0.2 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.9 | 1.7 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.2 | 5.4 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ludogorets Razgrad 5–1–0 Septemvri Sofia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07/26 Europe Friendlies | Ludogorets Razgrad | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Septemvri Sofia |
| 15/12/25 Bulgaria Cup | Septemvri Sofia | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Ludogorets Razgrad |
| 23/11/25 Bulgaria First League | Septemvri Sofia | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Ludogorets Razgrad |
| 19/07/25 Bulgaria First League | Ludogorets Razgrad | 5-0 HT 1-0 | Septemvri Sofia |
| 03/03/25 Bulgaria First League | Ludogorets Razgrad | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Septemvri Sofia |
| 20/10/24 Bulgaria First League | Septemvri Sofia | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Ludogorets Razgrad |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 4 | 24 |
| 2 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 6 | 20 |
| 3 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 9 | 19 |
| 4 | CSKA Sofia | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 5 | 17 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 7 | 16 |
| 6 | Slavia Sofia | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 10 |
| 7 | Botev Plovdiv | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 14 | 10 |
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 9 |
| 9 | Septemvri Sofia | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 8 |
| 10 | Botev Vratsa | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 7 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 6 |
| 12 | Cherno More Varna | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 5 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 4 |
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 17 | 4 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ludogorets Razgrad | Septemvri Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Spartak Varna | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Slavia Sofia | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Botev Vratsa | 2-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| CSKA Sofia | 1-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 0 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Ludogorets Razgrad (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ludogorets Razgrad
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 30/08 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 22/08 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 15/08 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 09/08 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 02/08 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 27/07 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 18/07 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 25/05 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
Septemvri Sofia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 28/08 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 23/08 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 17/08 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 26/07 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 18/07 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 22/05 | PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 15 | D |
| 18/05 | Beroe Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ludogorets Razgrad vs Septemvri Sofia?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ludogorets Razgrad win (78%). Probabilities: Ludogorets Razgrad 78%, draw 15%, Septemvri Sofia 7%.
How many goals are expected in Ludogorets Razgrad vs Septemvri Sofia?
The model expects 2.91 goals (Ludogorets Razgrad 2.36 · Septemvri Sofia 0.55), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Ludogorets Razgrad vs Septemvri Sofia?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.