Football · Uruguay Segunda · 19/09, 15:00

Prediction: Atletico Fenix Montevideo vs Colon FC

Team pages: Atletico Fenix Montevideo · Colon FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.25Total

Atletico Fenix Montevideo1.22

Colon FC1.04

1X2

39% 30% 31%

Atletico Fenix Montevideo Draw Colon FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Fenix Montevideo 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDDLWDLW

Colon FC 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLLWWDWWL

Head-to-head

Atletico Fenix Montevideo 1–2–2 Colon FC (5 last)

Colon FC3-3Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Colon FC1-1Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Atletico Fenix Montevideo0-1Colon FC
Colon FC1-3Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Atletico Fenix Montevideo1-2Colon FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Fenix Montevideo 1501 · Colon FC 1507

	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	Draw	Colon FC
Our model	39%	31%	30%
Market	40%	29%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Colon FC: 2-2-1.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	Colon FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.9	1.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.9	3.2 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.6 / 0.8	4.8 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.10

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
04:56 +3’	2.25	3.10	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Fenix Montevideo 1–2–2 Colon FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/09/26 Uruguay Cup	Colon FC	3-3 HT 1-1	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
13/06/26 Uruguay Segunda	Colon FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
15/09/25 Uruguay Segunda	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	0-1 HT 0-0	Colon FC
22/06/25 Uruguay Segunda	Colon FC	1-3 HT 0-0	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
07/04/25 Uruguay Segunda	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1-2 HT 0-1	Colon FC

Standings · Uruguay Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Oriental	6	4	1	1	8	5	13
2	Plaza Colonia	6	3	3	0	9	2	12
3	Colon FC	6	2	3	1	8	5	9
4	Rentistas	6	2	3	1	6	5	9
5	Miramar Misiones	6	1	2	3	3	7	5
6	Paysandu FC	6	1	1	4	4	7	4
7	CA River Plate	6	1	1	4	6	13	4

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	Colon FC
Rentistas	1-2 L	0-1 L
Miramar Misiones	1-1 D	1-0 W
Tacuarembo	2-0 W	1-0 W
Plaza Colonia	1-4 L	1-1 D
La Luz	0-0 D	2-1 W
Cerrito	1-1 D	1-0 W
CA Atenas	1-0 W	1-4 L
Paysandu FC	0-1 L	2-3 L
Huracan DPA	2-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 3 L	5 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Colon FC (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Fenix Montevideo

WLWDDLWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-0	5	9	W
06/09	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-2	9	8	L
30/08	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	6	7	D
23/08	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-0	1	15	W
16/08	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	1-3	1-4	3	7	L
08/08	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
02/08	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	5	7	D
26/07	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
14/07	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
05/07	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-0	3	1	W

Colon FC

WWLLWWDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	9	7	L
06/09	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
29/08	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-0	9	5	W
22/08	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-1	13	5	D
17/08	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	2-0	2-1	0	2	W
08/08	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
03/08	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	1-2	1-4	6	5	L
25/07	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	1-1	2-3	7	3	L
11/07	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	2-0	2-0	3	7	W
06/07	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	6	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Fenix Montevideo vs Colon FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Fenix Montevideo win (39%). Probabilities: Atletico Fenix Montevideo 39%, draw 30%, Colon FC 31%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Fenix Montevideo vs Colon FC?

The model expects 2.25 goals (Atletico Fenix Montevideo 1.22 · Colon FC 1.04), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Fenix Montevideo vs Colon FC?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.