Football · Uruguay Segunda · 27/09, 00:00

Prediction: Club Oriental vs Atletico Fenix Montevideo

Team pages: Club Oriental · Atletico Fenix Montevideo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.19Total

Club Oriental1.05

Atletico Fenix Montevideo1.14

1X2

32% 30% 37%

Club Oriental Draw Atletico Fenix Montevideo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Club Oriental 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWLLDWWWLW

Atletico Fenix Montevideo 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWDDLWDLWD

Head-to-head

Club Oriental 2–1–2 Atletico Fenix Montevideo (5 last)

Atletico Fenix Montevideo2-2Club Oriental
Atletico Fenix Montevideo1-0Club Oriental
Atletico Fenix Montevideo2-1Club Oriental
Club Oriental2-0Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Club Oriental1-0Atletico Fenix Montevideo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Club Oriental 1505 · Atletico Fenix Montevideo 1482

	Club Oriental	Draw	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Our model	32%	32%	37%
Market	33%	29%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.19 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 11.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Club Oriental	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.8	0.9 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.9	1.9 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	6.9 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.10

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 1.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.70▲	Pinn 3.37 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.60 → 2.35▼	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:31 +2’	2.45	3.10	2.60
18:33 +10’	2.70▲	3.10	2.35▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:53 +51’	3.37	2.74	2.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Club Oriental 2–1–2 Atletico Fenix Montevideo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/06/26 Uruguay Segunda	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	2-2 HT 0-1	Club Oriental
03/05/26 Uruguay Segunda	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1-0 HT 0-0	Club Oriental
30/08/25 Uruguay Segunda	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	2-1 HT 1-1	Club Oriental
08/06/25 Uruguay Segunda	Club Oriental	2-0 HT 2-0	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
30/03/25 Uruguay Segunda	Club Oriental	1-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Fenix Montevideo

Standings · Uruguay Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Oriental	6	4	1	1	8	5	13
2	Plaza Colonia	6	3	3	0	9	2	12
3	Colon FC	6	2	3	1	8	5	9
4	Rentistas	6	2	3	1	6	5	9
5	Miramar Misiones	6	1	2	3	3	7	5
6	Paysandu FC	6	1	1	4	4	7	4
7	CA River Plate	6	1	1	4	6	13	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Club Oriental	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Rentistas	2-0 W	1-2 L
Miramar Misiones	1-3 L	1-1 D
Tacuarembo	1-0 W	2-0 W
Plaza Colonia	2-0 W	1-4 L
La Luz	2-0 W	0-0 D
Cerrito	1-1 D	1-1 D
CA Atenas	0-1 L	1-0 W
Paysandu FC	1-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Club Oriental

DWLLDWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	2-0	6	5	W
12/09	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	1-1	1-3	7	8	L
06/09	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
31/08	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
23/08	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-0	2	6	W
14/08	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
09/08	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	0	5	L
04/08	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	0-2	1-2	10	9	L
19/07	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
12/07	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-1	1	4	D

Atletico Fenix Montevideo

LWDDLWDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Colon FC Uruguay Segunda	0-1	1-1	9	4	D
13/09	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-0	5	9	W
06/09	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-2	9	8	L
30/08	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	6	7	D
23/08	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-0	1	15	W
16/08	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	1-3	1-4	3	7	L
08/08	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
02/08	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	5	7	D
26/07	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
14/07	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	6	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Club Oriental vs Atletico Fenix Montevideo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico Fenix Montevideo win (37%). Probabilities: Club Oriental 32%, draw 30%, Atletico Fenix Montevideo 37%.

How many goals are expected in Club Oriental vs Atletico Fenix Montevideo?

The model expects 2.19 goals (Club Oriental 1.05 · Atletico Fenix Montevideo 1.14), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Club Oriental vs Atletico Fenix Montevideo?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.