Football · Uruguay Segunda · 27/09, 18:00

Prediction: CA Atenas vs Plaza Colonia

Team pages: CA Atenas · Plaza Colonia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.59Total

CA Atenas1.28

Plaza Colonia1.31

1X2

35% 29% 36%

CA Atenas Draw Plaza Colonia

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

CA Atenas 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWWDLWDW

Plaza Colonia 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDWDLWWD

Head-to-head

CA Atenas 1–1–2 Plaza Colonia (4 last)

Plaza Colonia1-2CA Atenas
CA Atenas1-3Plaza Colonia
Plaza Colonia1-0CA Atenas
CA Atenas1-1Plaza Colonia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Atenas 1531 · Plaza Colonia 1523

	CA Atenas	Draw	Plaza Colonia
Our model	35%	29%	36%
Market	34%	30%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Plaza Colonia: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Atenas	Plaza Colonia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1	1.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	44/22/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3.7	2.8 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.4	5.4 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.00

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 21.93

Under 21.88

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.80▲	Pinn 2.89
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.50 → 2.30▼	Pinn 2.50 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.5% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:36 +5’	2.60	3.00	2.50
02:00 +4’	2.80▲	3.00	2.30▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:38 +3’	2.97	2.89	2.44
18:59 +20’	2.89▼	2.89	2.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Atenas 1–1–2 Plaza Colonia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/06/26 Uruguay Segunda	Plaza Colonia	1-2 HT 1-1	CA Atenas
10/08/24 Uruguay Segunda	CA Atenas	1-3 HT 0-0	Plaza Colonia
11/05/24 Uruguay Segunda	Plaza Colonia	1-0 HT 1-0	CA Atenas
24/03/24 Uruguay Segunda	CA Atenas	1-1	Plaza Colonia

Standings · Uruguay Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Oriental	6	4	1	1	8	5	13
2	Plaza Colonia	6	3	3	0	9	2	12
3	Colon FC	6	2	3	1	8	5	9
4	Rentistas	6	2	3	1	6	5	9
5	Miramar Misiones	6	1	2	3	3	7	5
6	Paysandu FC	6	1	1	4	4	7	4
7	CA River Plate	6	1	1	4	6	13	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA Atenas	Plaza Colonia
CA River Plate	3-2 W	2-3 L
Paysandu FC	0-2 L	1-1 D
Huracan DPA	0-0 D	2-1 W
Uruguay Montevideo	2-1 W	1-0 W
Club Oriental	1-0 W	0-2 L
Colon FC	4-1 W	1-1 D
Atletico Fenix Montevideo	0-1 L	4-1 W
Rentistas	1-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Plaza Colonia (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Atenas

LLWWWDLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	1	4	W
13/09	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
06/09	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	1-1	3-2	5	6	W
30/08	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
23/08	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
15/08	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
09/08	Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
03/08	Colon FC Uruguay Segunda	2-1	4-1	1	5	W
26/07	Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
12/07	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	1-2	1-3	6	11	L

Plaza Colonia

LWWDWDLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
12/09	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	0-1	2-1	6	10	W
08/09	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	8	8	W
31/08	Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
22/08	Colon FC Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
16/08	Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	3-1	4-1	1	7	W
10/08	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
02/08	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	0-0	3-0	7	9	W
25/07	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	–	2-0	–	–	W
11/07	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	1-2	2-3	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Atenas vs Plaza Colonia?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Plaza Colonia win (36%). Probabilities: CA Atenas 35%, draw 29%, Plaza Colonia 36%.

How many goals are expected in CA Atenas vs Plaza Colonia?

The model expects 2.59 goals (CA Atenas 1.28 · Plaza Colonia 1.31), with a 56% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Atenas vs Plaza Colonia?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.