Football · Uruguay Segunda · 19/09, 21:00

Prediction: Plaza Colonia vs Paysandu FC

Team pages: Plaza Colonia · Paysandu FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.39Total

Plaza Colonia1.51

Paysandu FC0.88

1X2

51% 27% 21%

Plaza Colonia Draw Paysandu FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Plaza Colonia 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWDWDLWW

Paysandu FC 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWLLDWWL

Head-to-head

Plaza Colonia 1–1–0 Paysandu FC (2 last)

Paysandu FC1-2Plaza Colonia
Plaza Colonia1-1Paysandu FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Plaza Colonia 1543 · Paysandu FC 1517

	Plaza Colonia	Draw	Paysandu FC
Our model	51%	28%	21%
Market	52%	26%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Plaza Colonia	Paysandu FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.9	1.4 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/33/33%	33/44/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.2	2.2 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.9	5.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.40

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.77

2 (+0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
03:33 +6’	1.73	3.40	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Plaza Colonia 1–1–0 Paysandu FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/06/26 Uruguay Segunda	Paysandu FC	1-2 HT 1-1	Plaza Colonia
17/04/26 Uruguay Segunda	Plaza Colonia	1-1 HT 1-1	Paysandu FC

Standings · Uruguay Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Oriental	6	4	1	1	8	5	13
2	Plaza Colonia	6	3	3	0	9	2	12
3	Colon FC	6	2	3	1	8	5	9
4	Rentistas	6	2	3	1	6	5	9
5	Miramar Misiones	6	1	2	3	3	7	5
6	Paysandu FC	6	1	1	4	4	7	4
7	CA River Plate	6	1	1	4	6	13	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Plaza Colonia	Paysandu FC
Huracan DPA	2-1 W	2-3 L
Uruguay Montevideo	1-0 W	0-1 L
Club Oriental	0-2 L	2-1 W
Colon FC	1-1 D	3-2 W
Atletico Fenix Montevideo	4-1 W	1-0 W
Rentistas	1-1 D	2-1 W
CA River Plate	2-3 L	0-0 D
La Luz	1-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Plaza Colonia

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	0-1	2-1	6	10	W
08/09	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	8	8	W
31/08	Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
22/08	Colon FC Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
16/08	Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	3-1	4-1	1	7	W
10/08	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
02/08	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	0-0	3-0	7	9	W
25/07	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	–	2-0	–	–	W
11/07	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	1-2	2-3	4	5	L
04/07	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	2	10	W

Paysandu FC

WWWWLLDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	–	0-1	–	–	L
05/09	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	2-1	2-1	0	6	W
30/08	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-0	2	6	W
22/08	CA River Plate Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
15/08	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	1-2	2-3	5	7	L
08/08	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
04/08	Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda	2-0	2-1	3	9	W
25/07	Colon FC Uruguay Segunda	1-1	3-2	5	3	W
14/07	Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	5	8	W
04/07	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	1-1	2-1	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Plaza Colonia vs Paysandu FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Plaza Colonia win (51%). Probabilities: Plaza Colonia 51%, draw 27%, Paysandu FC 21%.

How many goals are expected in Plaza Colonia vs Paysandu FC?

The model expects 2.39 goals (Plaza Colonia 1.51 · Paysandu FC 0.88), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Plaza Colonia vs Paysandu FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.