Football · Uruguay Segunda · 20/09, 00:00

Prediction: La Luz vs CA Atenas

Team pages: La Luz · CA Atenas

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.43Total
La Luz1.21
CA Atenas1.21
1X2
35% 30% 35%
La Luz Draw CA Atenas
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
La Luz 3-2-5 (W-D-L)
LWWLDLLDLW
CA Atenas 4-3-3 (W-D-L)
DLLWWWDLWD
Head-to-head
La Luz 2–3–1 CA Atenas (6 last)
  • CA Atenas4-0La Luz
  • La Luz2-1CA Atenas
  • CA Atenas2-3La Luz
  • La Luz1-1CA Atenas
  • CA Atenas1-1La Luz
  • La Luz1-1CA Atenas
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · La Luz 1467 · CA Atenas 1506
La LuzDrawCA Atenas
Our model35%30%35%
Market35%30%35%
Estimated total (ours) 2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

  • H2H favours La Luz: 2-3-1.
  • High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
  • Cards-heavy: 12.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

La LuzCA Atenas
Goals for / against (FT)0.8 / 1.31.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)0.6 / 0.70.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)22/44/33%20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)3.8 / 7.41.2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)6.8 / 0.75.5 / 0.4

Head-to-head (H2H) · La Luz 231 CA Atenas

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DateHomeScoreAway
14/06/26
Uruguay Segunda
CA Atenas4-0
HT 2-0
La Luz
04/04/26
Uruguay Segunda
La Luz2-1
HT 1-1
CA Atenas
13/09/25
Uruguay Segunda
CA Atenas2-3
HT 1-1
La Luz
25/06/25
Uruguay Segunda
La Luz1-1
HT 1-1
CA Atenas
02/11/24
Uruguay Segunda
CA Atenas1-1
HT 0-0
La Luz
14/07/24
Uruguay Segunda
La Luz1-1
HT 1-0
CA Atenas

Standings · Uruguay Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Group A

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Atletico Fenix Montevideo 6321 13711
2 Huracan DPA 6240 9610
3 Uruguay Montevideo 6231 759
4 Cerrito 6231 889
5 La Luz 6141 567
6 CA Atenas 6114 5114
7 Tacuarembo 6033 593

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentLa LuzCA Atenas
Paysandu FC 1-0 W 0-2 L
Huracan DPA 1-3 L 0-0 D
Uruguay Montevideo 0-0 D 2-1 W
Club Oriental 0-2 L 1-0 W
Colon FC 1-2 L 4-1 W
Atletico Fenix Montevideo 0-0 D 0-1 L
Rentistas 2-5 L 1-3 L
Miramar Misiones 1-0 W 1-1 D
Record vs common 2 W 2 D 4 L 3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: CA Atenas (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

La Luz

LWWLDLLDLW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
12/09 Paysandu FC
Uruguay Segunda
1-0 W
04/09 Huracan DPA
Uruguay Segunda
1-1 1-3 98 L
29/08 Uruguay Montevideo
Uruguay Segunda
0-0 0-0 87 D
23/08 Club Oriental
Uruguay Segunda
0-1 0-2 96 L
17/08 Colon FC
Uruguay Segunda
0-2 1-2 102 L
08/08 Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Uruguay Segunda
0-0 0-0 57 D
01/08 Rentistas
Uruguay Segunda
1-2 2-5 912 L
27/07 Miramar Misiones
Uruguay Segunda
1-0 1-0 59 W
13/07 Tacuarembo
Uruguay Segunda
2-0 2-0 36 W
04/07 Plaza Colonia
Uruguay Segunda
0-0 0-1 910 L

CA Atenas

DLLWWWDLWD

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
13/09 Cerrito
Uruguay Segunda
0-0 0-0 27 D
06/09 CA River Plate
Uruguay Segunda
1-1 3-2 56 W
30/08 Paysandu FC
Uruguay Segunda
0-1 0-2 56 L
23/08 Huracan DPA
Uruguay Segunda
0-0 0-0 45 D
15/08 Uruguay Montevideo
Uruguay Segunda
1-0 2-1 56 W
09/08 Club Oriental
Uruguay Segunda
0-0 1-0 55 W
03/08 Colon FC
Uruguay Segunda
2-1 4-1 15 W
26/07 Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Uruguay Segunda
0-0 0-1 35 L
12/07 Rentistas
Uruguay Segunda
1-2 1-3 611 L
06/07 Miramar Misiones
Uruguay Segunda
0-1 1-1 53 D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in La Luz vs CA Atenas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a La Luz win (35%). Probabilities: La Luz 35%, draw 30%, CA Atenas 35%.

How many goals are expected in La Luz vs CA Atenas?

The model expects 2.43 goals (La Luz 1.21 · CA Atenas 1.21), with a 55% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in La Luz vs CA Atenas?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.