Football · Uruguay Segunda · 20/09, 19:00
Prediction: Cerrito vs CA River Plate
Team pages: Cerrito · CA River Plate
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.49Total
Cerrito1.21
CA River Plate1.28
1X2
Cerrito
Draw
CA River Plate
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Cerrito
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
CA River Plate
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cerrito
1–5
CA River Plate
(6 last)
- CA River Plate6-4Cerrito
- Cerrito1-5CA River Plate
- CA River Plate3-0Cerrito
- CA River Plate3-1Cerrito
- CA River Plate1-0Cerrito
- Cerrito3-1CA River Plate
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cerrito 1482 · CA River Plate 1526
| Cerrito | Draw | CA River Plate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 30% | 37% |
| Market | 34% | 29% | 37% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CA River Plate (rating 1482 vs 1526).
- H2H favours CA River Plate: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 11.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cerrito | CA River Plate | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 0.7 | 1.3 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 11/56/33% | 44/44/11% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4 | 2.9 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.3 / 0.3 | 5.4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cerrito 1–0–5 CA River Plate
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06/26 Uruguay Segunda | CA River Plate | 6-4 HT 5-3 | Cerrito |
| 05/09/22 Uruguay Clausura | Cerrito | 1-5 HT 1-2 | CA River Plate |
| 10/06/22 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | CA River Plate | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Cerrito |
| 28/02/22 Uruguay Apertura | CA River Plate | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Cerrito |
| 11/09/21 Uruguay Clausura | CA River Plate | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Cerrito |
| 17/05/21 Uruguay Apertura | Cerrito | 3-1 HT 0-0 | CA River Plate |
Standings · Uruguay Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Group B
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Oriental | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 13 |
| 2 | Plaza Colonia | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 12 |
| 3 | Colon FC | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | Rentistas | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 9 |
| 5 | Miramar Misiones | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 5 |
| 6 | Paysandu FC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 4 |
| 7 | CA River Plate | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 4 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cerrito | CA River Plate |
|---|---|---|
| CA Atenas | 0-0 D | 2-3 L |
| Paysandu FC | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Huracan DPA | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Uruguay Montevideo | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Club Oriental | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Atletico Fenix Montevideo | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Rentistas | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Miramar Misiones | 1-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Tacuarembo | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 5 D 2 L | 3 W 3 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cerrito
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 05/09 | Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 29/08 | Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 12 | L |
| 22/08 | Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 14/08 | Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 08/08 | Colon FC Uruguay Segunda |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 02/08 | Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 18/07 | Rentistas Uruguay Segunda |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 12/07 | Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 05/07 | Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
CA River Plate
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Atletico Fenix Montevideo Uruguay Segunda |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 06/09 | CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 30/08 | Rentistas Uruguay Segunda |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 22/08 | Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 15/08 | Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda |
0-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 09/08 | Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 02/08 | Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 18/07 | Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 11/07 | Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda |
2-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 05/07 | Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cerrito vs CA River Plate?
According to our model, the most likely result is an CA River Plate win (37%). Probabilities: Cerrito 34%, draw 29%, CA River Plate 37%.
How many goals are expected in Cerrito vs CA River Plate?
The model expects 2.49 goals (Cerrito 1.21 · CA River Plate 1.28), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Cerrito vs CA River Plate?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.