Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 06/10, 00:00
Prediction: Velez Sarsfield vs Platense
Team pages: Velez Sarsfield · Platense
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.19Total
Velez Sarsfield1.42
Platense0.78
1X2
Velez Sarsfield
Draw
Platense
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 62%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Velez Sarsfield
5-5-0 (W-D-L)
Platense
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Velez Sarsfield
3–2–1
Platense
(6 last)
- Platense0-2Velez Sarsfield
- Platense0-0Velez Sarsfield
- Velez Sarsfield0-1Platense
- Platense0-2Velez Sarsfield
- Velez Sarsfield1-1Platense
- Velez Sarsfield1-0Platense
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Velez Sarsfield 1567 · Platense 1455
| Velez Sarsfield | Draw | Platense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 30% | 19% |
| Market | 50% | 31% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.19 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Velez Sarsfield (rating 1567 vs 1455).
- H2H favours Velez Sarsfield: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Velez Sarsfield | Platense | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.9 | 0.9 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.2 | 0.3 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 56/44/0% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 3.7 | 1.5 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0 | 5.1 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Velez Sarsfield 3–2–1 Platense
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Platense | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Velez Sarsfield |
| 19/07/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Platense | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Velez Sarsfield |
| 29/01/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Velez Sarsfield | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Platense |
| 25/07/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Platense | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Velez Sarsfield |
| 14/03/23 Argentina Liga Profesional | Velez Sarsfield | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Platense |
| 29/12/22 Club Friendly List | Velez Sarsfield | 1-0 | Platense |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto AC Cordoba | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 7 | 22 |
| 2 | Velez Sarsfield | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 15 | 9 | 20 |
| 3 | Defensa y Justicia | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 9 | 17 |
| 5 | Boca Juniors | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 11 | 17 |
| 6 | CA Independiente | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 17 |
| 7 | Lanus | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 9 | 16 |
| 8 | Newell's | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 16 |
| 9 | Union Santa Fe | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 16 | 13 |
| 10 | San Lorenzo | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 11 |
| 11 | Estudiantes LP | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| 12 | Deportivo Riestra | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 10 |
| 13 | Platense | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 9 |
| 14 | CA Talleres de Córdoba | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 8 |
| 15 | Central Cordoba | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 8 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Velez Sarsfield | Platense |
|---|---|---|
| Newell's | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Estudiantes LP | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Deportivo Riestra | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Defensa y Justicia | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Boca Juniors | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| CA Independiente | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| CA Talleres de Córdoba | 3-1 W | 0-4 L |
| Instituto AC Cordoba | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 4 D 0 L | 1 W 2 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Velez Sarsfield (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Velez Sarsfield
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09 | CA Tigre Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 11/09 | Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 06/09 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 29/08 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 24/08 | River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 18/08 | Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 09/08 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 04/08 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 31/07 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 25/07 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
Platense
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 12/09 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 05/09 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 01/09 | Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 23/08 | Barracas Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 16/08 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 09/08 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 04/08 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-4 | – | – | L |
| 30/07 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 25/07 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Velez Sarsfield vs Platense?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Velez Sarsfield win (51%). Probabilities: Velez Sarsfield 51%, draw 30%, Platense 19%.
How many goals are expected in Velez Sarsfield vs Platense?
The model expects 2.19 goals (Velez Sarsfield 1.42 · Platense 0.78), with a 54% chance of over 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Velez Sarsfield vs Platense?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.