Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 06/10, 00:00

Prediction: Estudiantes LP vs Gimnasia Mendoza

Team pages: Estudiantes LP · Gimnasia Mendoza

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.3Total

Estudiantes LP1.57

Gimnasia Mendoza0.73

1X2

56% 27% 16%

Estudiantes LP Draw Gimnasia Mendoza

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Estudiantes LP 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Gimnasia Mendoza 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLWWWDLD

Head-to-head

Estudiantes LP 1–0 Gimnasia Mendoza (1 last)

Gimnasia Mendoza1-2Estudiantes LP

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Estudiantes LP 1505 · Gimnasia Mendoza 1517

	Estudiantes LP	Draw	Gimnasia Mendoza
Our model	56%	28%	16%
Market	56%	27%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.3 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Estudiantes LP	Gimnasia Mendoza
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.1	1.4 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.3	1.6 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.3	4.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.40

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Pinn 1.73
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.59 ★
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:19 +5’	1.65	3.40	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:01 +23’	1.73	3.59	5.07

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Estudiantes LP 1–0–0 Gimnasia Mendoza

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/03/26 Argentina Liga Profesional	Gimnasia Mendoza	1-2 HT 1-0	Estudiantes LP

Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Instituto AC Cordoba	10	7	1	2	13	7	22
2	Velez Sarsfield	10	5	5	0	15	9	20
3	Defensa y Justicia	10	5	3	2	13	11	18
4	Gimnasia Mendoza	10	5	2	3	14	9	17
5	Boca Juniors	10	4	5	1	14	11	17
6	CA Independiente	10	5	2	3	10	8	17
7	Lanus	10	5	1	4	13	9	16
8	Newell's	10	4	4	2	11	8	16
9	Union Santa Fe	10	4	1	5	17	16	13
10	San Lorenzo	10	3	2	5	4	8	11
11	Estudiantes LP	10	3	1	6	10	11	10
12	Deportivo Riestra	10	2	4	4	8	10	10
13	Platense	10	2	3	5	9	15	9
14	CA Talleres de Córdoba	10	2	2	6	11	17	8
15	Central Cordoba	10	2	2	6	7	13	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Estudiantes LP	Gimnasia Mendoza
Gimnasia LP	4-0 W	3-2 W
Deportivo Riestra	0-2 L	0-0 D
Boca Juniors	0-1 L	2-2 D
Defensa y Justicia	3-0 W	0-2 L
CA Independiente	0-2 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Gimnasia Mendoza (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Estudiantes LP

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/09	Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	1-2	8	4	L
12/09	Platense Argentina Liga Profesional	1-1	2-1	2	7	W
06/09	Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-1	1	7	L
01/09	Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
23/08	Sarmiento Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
15/08	Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	4-0	7	8	W
08/08	Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-2	0	7	L
06/08	Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
01/08	Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional	3-0	3-0	–	–	W
26/07	CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-2	5	2	L

Gimnasia Mendoza

WLWLWWWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
12/09	Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
05/09	Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional	1-2	2-2	5	5	D
31/08	CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	3-0	4	2	W
22/08	Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional	2-0	3-2	1	3	W
18/08	CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional	2-0	3-1	7	8	W
09/08	Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-1	2	8	L
01/08	Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
29/07	San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
24/07	Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-0	3	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Estudiantes LP vs Gimnasia Mendoza?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Estudiantes LP win (56%). Probabilities: Estudiantes LP 56%, draw 27%, Gimnasia Mendoza 16%.

How many goals are expected in Estudiantes LP vs Gimnasia Mendoza?

The model expects 2.3 goals (Estudiantes LP 1.57 · Gimnasia Mendoza 0.73), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Estudiantes LP vs Gimnasia Mendoza?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.