Football · Jamaica Premier League · 13/09, 22:30
Prediction: Montego Bay Utd vs Chapelton Maroons FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.64Total
Montego Bay Utd2.46
Chapelton Maroons FC1.18
1X2
Montego Bay Utd
Draw
Chapelton Maroons FC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
2-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Montego Bay Utd
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Chapelton Maroons FC
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Montego Bay Utd
5–1
Chapelton Maroons FC
(6 last)
- Chapelton Maroons FC3-1Montego Bay Utd
- Montego Bay Utd2-0Chapelton Maroons FC
- Chapelton Maroons FC1-2Montego Bay Utd
- Chapelton Maroons FC0-1Montego Bay Utd
- Montego Bay Utd2-1Chapelton Maroons FC
- Chapelton Maroons FC0-1Montego Bay Utd
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Montego Bay Utd 1491 · Chapelton Maroons FC 1456
| Montego Bay Utd | Draw | Chapelton Maroons FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 19% | 16% |
| Market | 64% | 21% | 15% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.9
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Montego Bay Utd: 5-0-1.
- High corners: 12 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Montego Bay Utd | Chapelton Maroons FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.5 | 1.8 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.8 | 1.3 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 8.2 | 1.6 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0.1 | 3.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Montego Bay Utd 5–0–1 Chapelton Maroons FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/26 Jamaica Premier League | Chapelton Maroons FC | 3-1 HT 0-0 | Montego Bay Utd |
| 25/01/26 Jamaica Premier League | Montego Bay Utd | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Chapelton Maroons FC |
| 05/10/25 Jamaica Premier League | Chapelton Maroons FC | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Montego Bay Utd |
| 10/03/25 Jamaica Premier League | Chapelton Maroons FC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Montego Bay Utd |
| 05/01/25 Jamaica Premier League | Montego Bay Utd | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Chapelton Maroons FC |
| 01/10/24 Jamaica Premier League | Chapelton Maroons FC | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Montego Bay Utd |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Montego Bay Utd | Chapelton Maroons FC |
|---|---|---|
| Mount Pleasant FA | 2-3 L | 2-5 L |
| Cavalier | 0-1 L | 1-4 L |
| Treasure Beach FC | 0-2 L | 3-0 W |
| Harbour View FC | 3-4 L | 1-1 D |
| Tivoli Gardens | 5-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Arnett Gardens | 0-1 L | 2-7 L |
| Spanish Town Police | 6-0 W | 6-2 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 5 L | 3 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Montego Bay Utd (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Montego Bay Utd
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05 | Mount Pleasant FA Jamaica Premier League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 21/05 | Cavalier Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 18 | 4 | L |
| 18/05 | Cavalier Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 06/05 | Mount Pleasant FA Jamaica Premier League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Treasure Beach FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 11 | 1 | L |
| 26/04 | Harbour View FC Jamaica Premier League |
0-3 | 3-4 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 22/04 | Tivoli Gardens Jamaica Premier League |
3-1 | 5-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 19/04 | Racing United FC Jamaica Premier League |
3-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 16/04 | Arnett Gardens Jamaica Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 13 | 4 | L |
| 12/04 | Spanish Town Police Jamaica Premier League |
3-0 | 6-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
Chapelton Maroons FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/05 | Arnett Gardens Jamaica Premier League |
0-5 | 2-7 | – | – | L |
| 03/05 | Waterhouse Jamaica Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | Spanish Town Police Jamaica Premier League |
5-0 | 6-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 24/04 | Mount Pleasant FA Jamaica Premier League |
2-2 | 2-5 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 19/04 | Portmore United Jamaica Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 15/04 | Treasure Beach FC Jamaica Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 12/04 | Cavalier Jamaica Premier League |
1-2 | 1-4 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 05/04 | Harbour View FC Jamaica Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 7 | D |
| 29/03 | Molynes United FC Jamaica Premier League |
2-0 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 25/03 | Tivoli Gardens Jamaica Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Montego Bay Utd vs Chapelton Maroons FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Montego Bay Utd win (64%). Probabilities: Montego Bay Utd 64%, draw 20%, Chapelton Maroons FC 15%.
How many goals are expected in Montego Bay Utd vs Chapelton Maroons FC?
The model expects 3.64 goals (Montego Bay Utd 2.46 · Chapelton Maroons FC 1.18), with a 59% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Montego Bay Utd vs Chapelton Maroons FC?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.