Football · Japan Regional League · 13/09, 10:30

Prediction: Tokyo 23 FC vs Nankatsu SC

Team pages: Tokyo 23 FC · Nankatsu SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.74Total

Tokyo 23 FC1.63

Nankatsu SC2.11

1X2

29% 24% 48%

Tokyo 23 FC Draw Nankatsu SC

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Tokyo 23 FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWDLLWLLLW

Nankatsu SC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLDDLWWWWL

Head-to-head

Tokyo 23 FC 1–2–3 Nankatsu SC (6 last)

Nankatsu SC3-3Tokyo 23 FC
Tokyo 23 FC1-5Nankatsu SC
Nankatsu SC3-2Tokyo 23 FC
Tokyo 23 FC1-1Nankatsu SC
Nankatsu SC1-4Tokyo 23 FC
Tokyo 23 FC0-1Nankatsu SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tokyo 23 FC 1454 · Nankatsu SC 1546

	Tokyo 23 FC	Draw	Nankatsu SC
Our model	29%	23%	48%
Market	28%	25%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.74 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nankatsu SC (rating 1454 vs 1546).
H2H favours Nankatsu SC: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tokyo 23 FC	Nankatsu SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.2	2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.2	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.1	2.1 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.1	2.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.60

21.91

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.89

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.27
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.96 ★
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
04:52 +4’	3.20	3.60	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:50 +306’	3.23	3.88	1.79
08:32 +31’	3.27▲	3.96▲	1.81▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tokyo 23 FC 1–2–3 Nankatsu SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/06/26 Japan Regional League	Nankatsu SC	3-3 HT 2-0	Tokyo 23 FC
13/09/25 Japan Regional League	Tokyo 23 FC	1-5 HT 0-4	Nankatsu SC
08/06/25 Japan Regional League	Nankatsu SC	3-2 HT 2-0	Tokyo 23 FC
15/09/24 Japan Regional League	Tokyo 23 FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Nankatsu SC
23/06/24 Japan Regional League	Nankatsu SC	1-4 HT 0-1	Tokyo 23 FC
19/09/22 Japan Regional League	Tokyo 23 FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Nankatsu SC

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tokyo 23 FC	Nankatsu SC
Ryutsu Keizai Dragons	4-1 W	2-2 D
Tokyo United FC	1-4 L	0-1 L
Shibuya City FC	1-4 L	1-0 W
Toho Titanium	0-4 L	2-1 W
Nihon University	2-1 W	3-0 W
Toin Yokohama University	0-1 L	3-1 W
EDO ALL United	1-3 L	4-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 5 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Nankatsu SC (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tokyo 23 FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Ryutsu Keizai Dragons Japan Regional League	2-0	4-1	0	2	W
29/08	Tokyo United FC Japan Regional League	0-4	1-4	4	3	L
26/07	Shibuya City FC Japan Regional League	0-2	1-4	3	2	L
19/07	Toho Titanium Japan Regional League	0-3	0-4	4	0	L
12/07	Nihon University Japan Regional League	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
04/07	Toin Yokohama University Japan Regional League	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
28/06	EDO ALL United Japan Regional League	1-0	1-3	6	6	L
07/06	Nankatsu SC Japan Regional League	0-2	3-3	7	4	D
31/05	Ryutsu Keizai Dragons Japan Regional League	0-0	2-0	3	1	W
16/05	Tokyo United FC Japan Regional League	0-0	1-1	3	3	D

Nankatsu SC

WLDDLWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Aries Toshima FC Japan Regional League	0-1	1-2	14	5	L
23/08	Toho Titanium Japan Regional League	0-1	2-1	6	2	W
26/07	Nihon University Japan Regional League	1-0	3-0	4	0	W
19/07	Toin Yokohama University Japan Regional League	3-0	3-1	7	2	W
12/07	EDO ALL United Japan Regional League	1-2	4-2	–	–	W
05/07	Tokyo United FC Japan Regional League	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
28/06	Ryutsu Keizai Dragons Japan Regional League	2-2	2-2	6	1	D
07/06	Tokyo 23 FC Japan Regional League	2-0	3-3	4	4	D
30/05	Aries Toshima FC Japan Regional League	0-1	1-2	9	9	L
17/05	Shibuya City FC Japan Regional League	0-0	1-0	9	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tokyo 23 FC vs Nankatsu SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Nankatsu SC win (48%). Probabilities: Tokyo 23 FC 29%, draw 24%, Nankatsu SC 48%.

How many goals are expected in Tokyo 23 FC vs Nankatsu SC?

The model expects 3.74 goals (Tokyo 23 FC 1.63 · Nankatsu SC 2.11), with a 57% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Tokyo 23 FC vs Nankatsu SC?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.