Football · Japan Regional League · 21/09, 10:00

Prediction: Toin Yokohama University vs Aries Toshima FC

Team pages: Toin Yokohama University · Aries Toshima FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

Toin Yokohama University1.42

Aries Toshima FC1.64

1X2

33% 25% 42%

Toin Yokohama University Draw Aries Toshima FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Toin Yokohama University 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Aries Toshima FC 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Toin Yokohama University 0–2–3 Aries Toshima FC (5 last)

Aries Toshima FC2-0Toin Yokohama University
Toin Yokohama University0-1Aries Toshima FC
Aries Toshima FC2-2Toin Yokohama University
Toin Yokohama University2-3Aries Toshima FC
Aries Toshima FC1-1Toin Yokohama University

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Toin Yokohama University 1420 · Aries Toshima FC 1570

	Toin Yokohama University	Draw	Aries Toshima FC
Our model	32%	26%	42%
Market	33%	24%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aries Toshima FC (rating 1420 vs 1570).
H2H favours Aries Toshima FC: 3-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Toin Yokohama University	Aries Toshima FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.3	2.1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.8	1.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	70/10/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.6	1.7 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.2	2.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.75

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 2.98 ★
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
01:56 +7’	2.70	3.75	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:02 +181’	2.94	3.52	1.99
14:17 +47’	3.25▲	3.63▲	1.84▼
22:02 +2’	2.92▼	3.58▼	1.99▲
05:55 +6’	2.85▼	3.57▼	2.02▲
07:00 +1’	2.66▼	3.53▼	2.15▲
08:00 +1’	2.29▼	3.94▲	2.37▲
08:24 +37’	2.98▲	3.44▼	2.03▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Toin Yokohama University 0–2–3 Aries Toshima FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
16/08/26 Japan Regional League	Aries Toshima FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Toin Yokohama University
20/09/25 Japan Regional League	Toin Yokohama University	0-1 HT 0-1	Aries Toshima FC
29/06/25 Japan Regional League	Aries Toshima FC	2-2 HT 0-1	Toin Yokohama University
16/09/24 Japan Regional League	Toin Yokohama University	2-3 HT 1-1	Aries Toshima FC
23/06/24 Japan Regional League	Aries Toshima FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Toin Yokohama University

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Toin Yokohama University	Aries Toshima FC
Shibuya City FC	0-1 L	1-2 L
Nihon University	0-6 L	4-1 W
EDO ALL United	0-2 L	3-1 W
Nankatsu SC	1-3 L	2-1 W
Ryutsu Keizai Dragons	2-0 W	2-0 W
Toho Titanium	1-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 5 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Aries Toshima FC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Toin Yokohama University

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Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Shibuya City FC Japan Regional League	0-1	0-1	2	1	L
29/08	Nihon University Japan Regional League	0-1	0-6	1	5	L
23/08	Tokyo United FC Japan Regional League	0-1	0-4	6	7	L
16/08	Aries Toshima FC Japan Regional League	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
26/07	EDO ALL United Japan Regional League	0-1	0-2	10	4	L
19/07	Nankatsu SC Japan Regional League	0-3	1-3	3	2	L
12/07	Ryutsu Keizai Dragons Japan Regional League	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
04/07	Tokyo 23 FC Japan Regional League	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
07/06	Shibuya City FC Japan Regional League	1-0	3-3	4	3	D
30/05	Toho Titanium Japan Regional League	0-0	1-2	5	3	L

Aries Toshima FC

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Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	EDO ALL United Japan Regional League	3-0	3-1	1	0	W
06/09	Nankatsu SC Japan Regional League	1-0	2-1	1	5	W
30/08	Ryutsu Keizai Dragons Japan Regional League	1-0	2-0	1	1	W
16/08	Toin Yokohama University Japan Regional League	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
18/07	Shibuya City FC Japan Regional League	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
12/07	Toho Titanium Japan Regional League	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
05/07	Nihon University Japan Regional League	2-0	4-1	4	1	W
07/06	EDO ALL United Japan Regional League	2-1	3-2	2	2	W
30/05	Nankatsu SC Japan Regional League	1-0	2-1	5	9	W
17/05	Ryutsu Keizai Dragons Japan Regional League	1-1	2-1	10	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Toin Yokohama University vs Aries Toshima FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Aries Toshima FC win (42%). Probabilities: Toin Yokohama University 33%, draw 25%, Aries Toshima FC 42%.

How many goals are expected in Toin Yokohama University vs Aries Toshima FC?

The model expects 3.06 goals (Toin Yokohama University 1.42 · Aries Toshima FC 1.64), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Toin Yokohama University vs Aries Toshima FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.