Football · Japan Regional League · 20/09, 05:15

Prediction: CA Celeste vs MHI Nagasaki

Team pages: CA Celeste

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.79Total
CA Celeste1.11
MHI Nagasaki1.68
1X2
25% 24% 50%
CA Celeste Draw MHI Nagasaki
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
CA Celeste 1-3-6 (W-D-L)
DLWLDLLLDL
MHI Nagasaki 1-3-6 (W-D-L)
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Head-to-head
CA Celeste 0–1–0 MHI Nagasaki (1 last)
  • MHI Nagasaki0-0CA Celeste
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Celeste 1442 · MHI Nagasaki 1434
CA CelesteDrawMHI Nagasaki
Our model24%27%49%
Market26%23%51%
Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

CA CelesteMHI Nagasaki
Goals for / against (FT)0.9 / 1.90.6 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)0.3 / 1.10.1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)10/40/50%0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)1.1 / 32 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)1.1 / 02.1 / 0.1

Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Celeste 010 MHI Nagasaki

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DateHomeScoreAway
14/06/26
Japan Regional League
MHI Nagasaki0-0
HT 0-0
CA Celeste

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentCA CelesteMHI Nagasaki
Kawasoe Club 1-2 L 1-2 L
Nexus Miyakonojo 2-2 D 2-0 W
KMG Holdings 0-1 L 0-3 L
Nobeoka Agata 2-3 L 2-2 D
NIFS Kanoya FC 1-0 W 0-1 L
Nippon Steel Oita 1-1 D 1-1 D
Record vs common 1 W 2 D 3 L 1 W 2 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Celeste

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
19/09 Kawasoe Club
Japan Regional League
1-1 1-2 90 L
06/09 Nexus Miyakonojo
Japan Regional League
1-2 2-2 45 D
19/07 KMG Holdings
Japan Regional League
0-1 0-1 12 L
28/06 Veroskronos Tsuno
Japan Regional League
0-2 1-4 00 L
27/06 Nobeoka Agata
Japan Regional League
0-0 2-3 21 L
14/06 MHI Nagasaki
Japan Regional League
0-0 0-0 01 D
13/06 Kawasoe Club
Japan Regional League
1-0 1-2 30 L
31/05 NIFS Kanoya FC
Japan Regional League
0-0 1-0 71 W
17/05 KMG Holdings
Japan Regional League
0-4 0-4 10 L
12/04 Nippon Steel Oita
Japan Regional League
0-1 1-1 31 D

MHI Nagasaki

LLLDDLWLLD

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
19/09 Nobeoka Agata
Japan Regional League
0-1 2-2 30 D
08/08 KMG Holdings
Japan Regional League
0-2 0-3 43 L
19/07 NIFS Kanoya FC
Japan Regional League
0-0 0-1 42 L
12/07 Nexus Miyakonojo
Japan Regional League
0-0 2-0 11 W
28/06 Brew Saga
Japan Regional League
0-0 0-1 51 L
27/06 Nippon Steel Oita
Japan Regional League
1-1 1-1 72 D
14/06 CA Celeste
Japan Regional League
0-0 0-0 91 D
13/06 Nobeoka Agata
Japan Regional League
0-2 0-3 14 L
13/06 Nobeoka Agata
Japan Regional League
0-2 0-3 15 L
24/05 Kawasoe Club
Japan Regional League
0-0 1-2 73 L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Celeste vs MHI Nagasaki?

According to our model, the most likely result is an MHI Nagasaki win (50%). Probabilities: CA Celeste 25%, draw 24%, MHI Nagasaki 50%.

How many goals are expected in CA Celeste vs MHI Nagasaki?

The model expects 2.79 goals (CA Celeste 1.11 · MHI Nagasaki 1.68), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Celeste vs MHI Nagasaki?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.