Football · Netherlands Derde Divisie · 12/09, 19:30
Prediction: Groene Ster vs Zwaluwen
Team pages: Groene Ster
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.45Total
Groene Ster1.59
Zwaluwen1.86
1X2
Groene Ster
Draw
Zwaluwen
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Groene Ster
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Zwaluwen
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Groene Ster
1–1
Zwaluwen
(2 last)
- Zwaluwen3-2Groene Ster
- Groene Ster2-0Zwaluwen
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Groene Ster 1450 · Zwaluwen 1519
| Groene Ster | Draw | Zwaluwen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 24% | 44% |
| Market | 33% | 23% | 44% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.45 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Zwaluwen (rating 1450 vs 1519).
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Groene Ster | Zwaluwen | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 2.7 | 1.6 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1 | 0.6 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/10/50% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 4.5 | 3.7 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0.2 | 2.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Groene Ster 1–0–1 Zwaluwen
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 Netherlands Derde Divisie | Zwaluwen | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Groene Ster |
| 25/10/25 Netherlands Derde Divisie | Groene Ster | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Zwaluwen |
Standings · Netherlands Derde Divisie · Derde Divisie 26/27, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lisse | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 12 |
| 2 | Noordwijk | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 10 |
| 3 | SV Poortugaal | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | VV Dongen | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 9 |
| 5 | Rijnvogels | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 8 |
| 6 | RKSV UDI '19 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 7 | VV UNA | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 6 |
| 8 | Roosendaal | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Excelsior Maassluis | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| 10 | VV Goes | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 5 |
| 11 | VVSB | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| 12 | Zwaluwen | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 4 |
| 13 | VV Gemert | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 3 |
| 14 | Achilles Veen | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 3 |
| 15 | TOGB | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 2 |
| 16 | Blauw Geel '38 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 2 |
| 17 | Groene Ster | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 2 |
| 18 | EVV Echt | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Groene Ster | Zwaluwen |
|---|---|---|
| TOGB | 3-3 D | 0-1 L |
| ASWH | 3-1 W | 6-1 W |
| Kloetinge | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| SteDoco | 0-3 L | 3-1 W |
| Noordwijk | 4-2 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Groene Ster
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | TOGB Netherlands Derde Divisie |
0-1 | 3-3 | – | – | D |
| 30/08 | VVSB Netherlands Derde Divisie |
1-0 | 3-3 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 22/08 | Excelsior Maassluis Netherlands Derde Divisie |
0-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 16/08 | Roosendaal Netherlands Derde Divisie |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 23/05 | ASWH Netherlands Derde Divisie |
1-0 | 3-1 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | TOGB Netherlands Derde Divisie |
0-3 | 1-5 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 09/05 | Kloetinge Netherlands Derde Divisie |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | SteDoco Netherlands Derde Divisie |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 18/04 | Noordwijk Netherlands Derde Divisie |
2-0 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 12/04 | VV Gemert Netherlands Derde Divisie |
1-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
Zwaluwen
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | RKSV UDI '19 Netherlands Derde Divisie |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 29/08 | SV Poortugaal Netherlands Derde Divisie |
0-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 22/08 | VV UNA Netherlands Derde Divisie |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 15/08 | VV Dongen Netherlands Derde Divisie |
0-1 | 0-4 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 23/05 | Blauw Geel '38 Netherlands Derde Divisie |
1-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | ASWH Netherlands Derde Divisie |
3-0 | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | TOGB Netherlands Derde Divisie |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Kloetinge Netherlands Derde Divisie |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 18/04 | SteDoco Netherlands Derde Divisie |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 11/04 | Noordwijk Netherlands Derde Divisie |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Groene Ster vs Zwaluwen?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Zwaluwen win (44%). Probabilities: Groene Ster 33%, draw 24%, Zwaluwen 44%.
How many goals are expected in Groene Ster vs Zwaluwen?
The model expects 3.45 goals (Groene Ster 1.59 · Zwaluwen 1.86), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Groene Ster vs Zwaluwen?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.