Football · Netherlands Derde Divisie · 20/09, 14:00

Prediction: USV Hercules vs TEC

Team pages: USV Hercules · TEC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.4Total

USV Hercules1.78

TEC1.62

1X2

41% 24% 35%

USV Hercules Draw TEC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

USV Hercules 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLWWDLLLLW

TEC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWDWLWLWD

Head-to-head

USV Hercules 0–2–1 TEC (3 last)

TEC0-0USV Hercules
USV Hercules0-2TEC
TEC0-0USV Hercules

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · USV Hercules 1453 · TEC 1552

	USV Hercules	Draw	TEC
Our model	41%	24%	35%
Market	42%	23%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.4 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours TEC (rating 1453 vs 1552).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	USV Hercules	TEC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2	2.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	1.5 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.7	1.5 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.3 / 0.3	2.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.80

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
15:25 +8’	2.15	3.80	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · USV Hercules 0–2–1 TEC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Netherlands Derde Divisie	TEC	0-0 HT 0-0	USV Hercules
14/12/25 Netherlands Derde Divisie	USV Hercules	0-2 HT 0-2	TEC
23/03/25 Netherlands Derde Divisie	TEC	0-0 HT 0-0	USV Hercules

Standings · Netherlands Derde Divisie · Derde Divisie 26/27, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Genemuiden	5	5	0	0	14	3	15
2	ACV Assen	5	4	1	0	12	2	13
3	Harkemase Boys	5	4	1	0	11	6	13
4	VV Scherpenzeel	5	4	0	1	10	7	12
5	Sportlust '46	6	3	3	0	14	9	12
6	Excelsior '31	5	3	1	1	14	6	10
7	Purmersteijn	5	2	2	1	9	6	8
8	TEC	5	2	1	2	13	12	7
9	Hoogeveen	5	2	1	2	12	11	7
10	ADO '20	5	2	1	2	10	10	7
11	Sparta Nijkerk	5	1	2	2	13	14	5
12	DVS'33 Ermelo	6	1	2	3	9	12	5
13	DOVO	6	1	2	3	8	13	5
14	Staphorst	5	0	3	2	6	9	3
15	VV Eemdijk	5	1	0	4	7	15	3
16	USV Hercules	5	1	0	4	6	16	3
17	SV Zwaluwen Wierden	5	0	1	4	8	18	1
18	HVV Hollandia	6	0	1	5	13	20	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	USV Hercules	TEC
Sparta Nijkerk	2-1 W	3-1 W
ACV Assen	0-3 L	0-1 L
Sportlust '46	2-0 W	1-2 L
ROHDA Raalte	1-2 L	1-0 W
Excelsior '31	3-2 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: TEC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

USV Hercules

WLWWDLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Sparta Nijkerk Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
05/09	ACV Assen Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-3	–	–	L
29/08	Harkemase Boys Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-1	3-5	6	3	L
22/08	Genemuiden Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
16/08	ADO '20 Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	1-3	4	2	L
23/05	TEC Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
16/05	Harkemase Boys Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	4-0	1	0	W
09/05	Sportlust '46 Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
25/04	ROHDA Raalte Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
18/04	Excelsior '31 Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	3-2	–	–	W

TEC

WDWDWLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	DVS'33 Ermelo Netherlands Derde Divisie	3-0	4-4	–	–	D
06/09	HVV Hollandia Netherlands Derde Divisie	3-1	5-4	–	–	W
29/08	Sportlust '46 Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
22/08	Sparta Nijkerk Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
15/08	ACV Assen Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
07/06	RKSV Neo Netherlands Derde Divisie	3-0	3-0	3	3	W
23/05	USV Hercules Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
16/05	ROHDA Raalte Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
09/05	Excelsior '31 Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
26/04	HSC '21 Netherlands Derde Divisie	3-1	4-3	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in USV Hercules vs TEC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a USV Hercules win (41%). Probabilities: USV Hercules 41%, draw 24%, TEC 35%.

How many goals are expected in USV Hercules vs TEC?

The model expects 3.4 goals (USV Hercules 1.78 · TEC 1.62), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in USV Hercules vs TEC?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.