Football · Netherlands Derde Divisie · 19/09, 18:00

Prediction: Hoogeveen vs Excelsior '31

Team pages: Hoogeveen · Excelsior '31

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.65Total

Hoogeveen1.8

Excelsior '311.86

1X2

37% 23% 40%

Hoogeveen Draw Excelsior '31

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Hoogeveen 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLWWLLDW

Excelsior '31 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLDWWWWWLD

Head-to-head

Hoogeveen 0–1–1 Excelsior '31 (2 last)

Excelsior '313-3Hoogeveen
Hoogeveen0-1Excelsior '31

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hoogeveen 1500 · Excelsior '31 1546

	Hoogeveen	Draw	Excelsior '31
Our model	37%	23%	40%
Market	38%	22%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.65 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Excelsior '31 (rating 1500 vs 1546).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hoogeveen	Excelsior '31
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2	2.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.8	1 / 2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.40

X4.00

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.88

Under 3.51.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Pinn 2.56 ★
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:14 +3’	2.40	4.00	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:12 +17’	2.56	3.49	2.23

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hoogeveen 0–1–1 Excelsior '31

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/01/26 Netherlands Derde Divisie	Excelsior '31	3-3 HT 1-1	Hoogeveen
30/08/25 Netherlands Derde Divisie	Hoogeveen	0-1 HT 0-0	Excelsior '31

Standings · Netherlands Derde Divisie · Derde Divisie 26/27, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Genemuiden	5	5	0	0	14	3	15
2	ACV Assen	5	4	1	0	12	2	13
3	Harkemase Boys	5	4	1	0	11	6	13
4	VV Scherpenzeel	5	4	0	1	10	7	12
5	Excelsior '31	5	3	1	1	14	6	10
6	Sportlust '46	5	2	3	0	12	9	9
7	Purmersteijn	5	2	2	1	9	6	8
8	TEC	5	2	1	2	13	12	7
9	Hoogeveen	5	2	1	2	12	11	7
10	ADO '20	5	2	1	2	10	10	7
11	Sparta Nijkerk	5	1	2	2	13	14	5
12	DOVO	5	1	2	2	8	11	5
13	Staphorst	5	0	3	2	6	9	3
14	VV Eemdijk	5	1	0	4	7	15	3
15	USV Hercules	5	1	0	4	6	16	3
16	DVS'33 Ermelo	5	0	2	3	7	11	2
17	HVV Hollandia	5	0	1	4	12	18	1
18	SV Zwaluwen Wierden	5	0	1	4	8	18	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hoogeveen	Excelsior '31
Purmersteijn	1-3 L	1-1 D
VV Scherpenzeel	1-2 L	1-3 L
SV Zwaluwen Wierden	4-3 W	4-0 W
VV Eemdijk	1-0 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Excelsior '31 (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hoogeveen

DLWLWWLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	DOVO Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-1	4-1	–	–	W
05/09	Sportlust '46 Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
30/08	Purmersteijn Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-2	1-3	5	3	L
22/08	VV Scherpenzeel Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	SV Zwaluwen Wierden Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	4-3	–	–	W
23/05	Genemuiden Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	2-1	6	4	W
16/05	SV Huizen Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
09/05	VV Eemdijk Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-0	5	0	W
25/04	Sparta Nijkerk Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-2	1-6	–	–	L
18/04	DVS'33 Ermelo Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	1-1	3	2	D

Excelsior '31

LLDWWWWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Purmersteijn Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	VV Scherpenzeel Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
29/08	SV Zwaluwen Wierden Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
22/08	Staphorst Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-2	4-2	2	1	W
15/08	VV Eemdijk Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
23/05	Urk Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
16/05	Staphorst Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
09/05	TEC Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
25/04	Harkemase Boys Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
18/04	USV Hercules Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	2-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hoogeveen vs Excelsior '31?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Excelsior '31 win (40%). Probabilities: Hoogeveen 37%, draw 23%, Excelsior '31 40%.

How many goals are expected in Hoogeveen vs Excelsior '31?

The model expects 3.65 goals (Hoogeveen 1.8 · Excelsior '31 1.86), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Hoogeveen vs Excelsior '31?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.