Football · Colombia Primera A · 14/10, 01:30
Prediction: Atletico Bucaramanga vs Aguilas Doradas
Team pages: Atletico Bucaramanga · Aguilas Doradas
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.79Total
Atletico Bucaramanga1.64
Aguilas Doradas1.15
1X2
Atletico Bucaramanga
Draw
Aguilas Doradas
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Atletico Bucaramanga
5-5-0 (W-D-L)
Aguilas Doradas
1-6-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Atletico Bucaramanga
4–1–1
Aguilas Doradas
(6 last)
- Aguilas Doradas2-1Atletico Bucaramanga
- Atletico Bucaramanga4-0Aguilas Doradas
- Aguilas Doradas0-1Atletico Bucaramanga
- Aguilas Doradas1-3Atletico Bucaramanga
- Atletico Bucaramanga1-0Aguilas Doradas
- Atletico Bucaramanga1-1Aguilas Doradas
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Atletico Bucaramanga 1560 · Aguilas Doradas 1485
| Atletico Bucaramanga | Draw | Aguilas Doradas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Market | 46% | 29% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Bucaramanga (rating 1560 vs 1485).
- H2H favours Atletico Bucaramanga: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 12 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Atletico Bucaramanga | Aguilas Doradas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1 | 1.2 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/40/0% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 2 | 3.3 / 6.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.7 / 0.5 | 6.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Bucaramanga 4–1–1 Aguilas Doradas
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/04/26 Colombia Primera A | Aguilas Doradas | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Atletico Bucaramanga |
| 25/08/25 Colombia Primera A | Atletico Bucaramanga | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Aguilas Doradas |
| 08/03/25 Colombia Primera A | Aguilas Doradas | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Atletico Bucaramanga |
| 21/10/24 Colombia Primera A | Aguilas Doradas | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Atletico Bucaramanga |
| 27/03/24 Colombia Primera A | Atletico Bucaramanga | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Aguilas Doradas |
| 21/08/23 Colombia Primera A | Atletico Bucaramanga | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Aguilas Doradas |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 7 | 27 |
| 2 | Deportivo Cali | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 9 | 25 |
| 3 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 20 | 10 | 23 |
| 5 | Millonarios | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 19 | 12 | 22 |
| 6 | Independiente Santa Fe | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 12 | 22 |
| 7 | Independiente Medellin | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 20 |
| 8 | Deportes Tolima | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 20 |
| 9 | Once Caldas | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| 10 | Aguilas Doradas | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 17 | 15 |
| 11 | Cucuta Deportivo | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 19 | 15 |
| 12 | Llaneros | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 17 | 14 |
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 14 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 16 | 20 | 14 |
| 14 | Boyaca Chico | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 12 |
| 15 | Alianza | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 26 | 12 |
| 16 | Fortaleza CEIF | 13 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 19 | 11 |
| 17 | Junior | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 22 | 10 |
| 18 | Deportivo Pasto | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 9 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pereira | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 9 |
| 20 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 20 | 7 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Atletico Bucaramanga | Aguilas Doradas |
|---|---|---|
| Internacional de Bogota | 2-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Deportivo Pereira | 3-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Deportivo Cali | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Alianza | 3-2 W | 2-2 D |
| Llaneros | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 0 L | 0 W 4 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Atletico Bucaramanga (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Atletico Bucaramanga
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
3-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 26/09 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 20/09 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 18/09 | Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A |
2-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 13/09 | Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A |
2-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 31/08 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 22/08 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 09/08 | Alianza Colombia Primera A |
2-1 | 3-2 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 04/08 | Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 11 | D |
| 31/07 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
Aguilas Doradas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Alianza Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 11 | D |
| 03/10 | Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 9 | W |
| 28/09 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 24/09 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 18/09 | Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 13/09 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 06/09 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-2 | 12 | 9 | D |
| 30/08 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
0-2 | 2-2 | 15 | 1 | D |
| 22/08 | Millonarios Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 10 | D |
| 19/08 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Atletico Bucaramanga vs Aguilas Doradas?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Bucaramanga win (47%). Probabilities: Atletico Bucaramanga 47%, draw 28%, Aguilas Doradas 25%.
How many goals are expected in Atletico Bucaramanga vs Aguilas Doradas?
The model expects 2.79 goals (Atletico Bucaramanga 1.64 · Aguilas Doradas 1.15), with a 56% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Atletico Bucaramanga vs Aguilas Doradas?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.