Football · Colombia Primera A · 24/10, 01:00

Prediction: Boyaca Chico vs Atletico Bucaramanga

Team pages: Boyaca Chico · Atletico Bucaramanga

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Boyaca Chico1.03

Atletico Bucaramanga1.6

1X2

23% 28% 49%

Boyaca Chico Draw Atletico Bucaramanga

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Boyaca Chico 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDWWLLWDLL

Atletico Bucaramanga 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

WDDWDWWWDD

Head-to-head

Boyaca Chico 2–2–2 Atletico Bucaramanga (6 last)

Atletico Bucaramanga5-0Boyaca Chico
Atletico Bucaramanga1-1Boyaca Chico
Atletico Bucaramanga3-2Boyaca Chico
Boyaca Chico1-0Atletico Bucaramanga
Boyaca Chico1-1Atletico Bucaramanga
Atletico Bucaramanga2-3Boyaca Chico

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Boyaca Chico 1465 · Atletico Bucaramanga 1574

	Boyaca Chico	Draw	Atletico Bucaramanga
Our model	23%	27%	49%
Market	23%	29%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Bucaramanga (rating 1465 vs 1574).
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Boyaca Chico	Atletico Bucaramanga
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.3	1.9 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	1.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	70/30/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.5	1.2 / 1.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.3	4.9 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

14.10

X3.25

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:59 +12’	4.10	3.25	1.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Boyaca Chico 2–2–2 Atletico Bucaramanga

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/04/26 Colombia Primera A	Atletico Bucaramanga	5-0 HT 2-0	Boyaca Chico
13/07/25 Colombia Primera A	Atletico Bucaramanga	1-1 HT 1-1	Boyaca Chico
11/06/25 Colombia Cup	Atletico Bucaramanga	3-2 HT 2-1	Boyaca Chico
25/01/25 Colombia Primera A	Boyaca Chico	1-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Bucaramanga
06/11/24 Colombia Primera A	Boyaca Chico	1-1 HT 0-1	Atletico Bucaramanga
20/04/24 Colombia Primera A	Atletico Bucaramanga	2-3 HT 1-1	Boyaca Chico

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	America de Cali	14	8	4	2	26	10	28
2	Atletico Nacional Medellin	12	8	2	2	25	11	26
3	Deportivo Cali	14	7	5	2	20	9	26
4	Millonarios	15	6	7	2	23	13	25
5	Atletico Bucaramanga	13	6	7	0	22	12	25
6	Independiente Medellin	14	7	2	5	21	19	23
7	Independiente Santa Fe	13	6	4	3	19	13	22
8	Deportes Tolima	15	5	5	5	18	18	20
9	Once Caldas	14	5	4	5	18	16	19
10	Aguilas Doradas	14	4	7	3	19	19	19
11	Cucuta Deportivo	13	5	3	5	16	19	18
12	Llaneros	14	5	2	7	16	17	17
13	Internacional de Bogota	14	2	8	4	16	20	14
14	Junior	14	2	6	6	19	23	12
15	Alianza	13	3	3	7	14	26	12
16	Boyaca Chico	13	3	3	7	11	23	12
17	Fortaleza CEIF	13	1	8	4	14	19	11
18	Deportivo Pereira	13	1	7	5	8	18	10
19	Jaguares de Cordoba	13	2	4	7	15	26	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	12	2	3	7	9	18	9

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Boyaca Chico	Atletico Bucaramanga
Deportes Tolima	0-0 D	0-0 D
Alianza	1-2 L	3-2 W
Independiente Medellin	2-1 W	2-2 D
Once Caldas	2-0 W	3-1 W
Aguilas Doradas	2-2 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 3 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Boyaca Chico

DDWWLLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-4	5	5	L
12/10	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	11	5	L
03/10	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	0	3	D
26/09	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	0-0	3-0	0	1	W
19/09	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-3	6	4	L
16/09	Alianza Colombia Primera A	1-2	1-2	9	4	L
13/09	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-1	5	5	W
05/09	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	2-0	2-0	4	7	W
30/08	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	2-0	2-2	2	1	D
26/08	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	3	4	D

Atletico Bucaramanga

WDDWDWWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
14/10	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
05/10	Junior Colombia Primera A	3-1	3-1	2	4	W
26/09	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	2-0	3-1	1	5	W
20/09	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
18/09	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	2-1	2-2	1	6	D
13/09	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	2-1	3-1	2	3	W
31/08	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	2	8	D
22/08	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	1	7	D
09/08	Alianza Colombia Primera A	2-1	3-2	0	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Boyaca Chico vs Atletico Bucaramanga?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico Bucaramanga win (49%). Probabilities: Boyaca Chico 23%, draw 28%, Atletico Bucaramanga 49%.

How many goals are expected in Boyaca Chico vs Atletico Bucaramanga?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Boyaca Chico 1.03 · Atletico Bucaramanga 1.6), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Boyaca Chico vs Atletico Bucaramanga?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.