Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 11/09, 16:00

Prediction: Lokomotiv Tashkent vs Mashal Mubarek

Team pages: Lokomotiv Tashkent · Mashal Mubarek

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.48Total

Lokomotiv Tashkent2.48

Mashal Mubarek1

1X2

69% 18% 13%

Lokomotiv Tashkent Draw Mashal Mubarek

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Lokomotiv Tashkent 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDDWLWLWWD

Mashal Mubarek 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LWDLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

Lokomotiv Tashkent 3–2–1 Mashal Mubarek (6 last)

Mashal Mubarek0-2Lokomotiv Tashkent
Mashal Mubarek2-1Lokomotiv Tashkent
Lokomotiv Tashkent0-0Mashal Mubarek
Lokomotiv Tashkent2-1Mashal Mubarek
Mashal Mubarek1-4Lokomotiv Tashkent
Mashal Mubarek0-0Lokomotiv Tashkent

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lokomotiv Tashkent 1562 · Mashal Mubarek 1387

	Lokomotiv Tashkent	Draw	Mashal Mubarek
Our model	69%	19%	13%
Market	69%	18%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 3.48 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lokomotiv Tashkent (rating 1562 vs 1387).
H2H favours Lokomotiv Tashkent: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lokomotiv Tashkent	Mashal Mubarek
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.3	0.7 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.4 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	0/40/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.1	2.2 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.30

X5.00

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.98

2 (+1.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 08:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.30▲	Bet365 1.30
X	5.50 → 5.00▼	Pinn 5.44
2	9.00 → 7.00▼	Pinn 9.30 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
22:06 +10’	1.22	5.50	9.00
23:47 +7’	1.25▲	5.50	8.00▼
08:00 +8’	1.30▲	5.00▼	7.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:19 +202’	1.24	5.55	10.50
22:31 +83’	1.27▲	5.32▼	9.80▼
05:48 +3’	1.27▼	5.36▲	9.84▲
08:06 +2’	1.26▼	5.47▲	9.93▲
08:59 +75’	1.28▲	5.37▼	9.19▼
12:27 +14’	1.27▼	5.44▲	9.30▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lokomotiv Tashkent 3–2–1 Mashal Mubarek

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/03/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Mashal Mubarek	0-2 HT 0-2	Lokomotiv Tashkent
09/10/23 Uzbekistan 1st Division	Mashal Mubarek	2-1	Lokomotiv Tashkent
20/05/23 Uzbekistan 1st Division	Lokomotiv Tashkent	0-0 HT 0-0	Mashal Mubarek
27/09/21 Uzbekistan PFL	Lokomotiv Tashkent	2-1 HT 0-1	Mashal Mubarek
05/05/21 Uzbekistan PFL	Mashal Mubarek	1-4 HT 0-2	Lokomotiv Tashkent
02/11/20 Uzbekistan PFL	Mashal Mubarek	0-0 HT 0-0	Lokomotiv Tashkent

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	21	15	3	3	49	17	48
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	21	13	7	1	37	19	46
3	Navbahor Namangan	20	11	5	4	32	18	38
4	FK Buxoro	20	10	4	6	30	23	34
5	AGMK	21	9	5	7	29	28	32
6	Lokomotiv Tashkent	20	9	5	6	33	27	32
7	Nasaf Qarshi	21	8	7	6	29	20	31
8	FK Andijan	21	9	3	9	26	24	30
9	Dinamo Samarqand	21	8	6	7	31	31	30
10	Sogdiana Jizzakh	21	8	4	9	37	41	28
11	Qizilqum Zarafshon	21	8	2	11	20	29	26
12	Termez Surkhon	21	6	5	10	18	28	23
13	Xorazm Urganch	21	5	6	10	17	29	21
14	FK Kokand 1912	21	4	8	9	19	29	20
15	FC Bunyodkor	21	6	1	14	20	35	19
16	Mashal Mubarek	20	1	1	18	10	39	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lokomotiv Tashkent	Mashal Mubarek
Navbahor Namangan	1-1 D	0-2 L
Xorazm Urganch	3-1 W	0-2 L
FK Kokand 1912	1-2 L	1-0 W
Dinamo Samarqand	2-1 W	1-3 L
Sogdiana Jizzakh	3-1 W	2-5 L
FK Andijan	3-3 D	0-1 L
Qizilqum Zarafshon	1-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Lokomotiv Tashkent (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lokomotiv Tashkent

WDDWLWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
26/08	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	3-0	4-1	4	1	W
20/08	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
15/08	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-2	2	2	L
07/08	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-1	5	0	W
01/08	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	1-2	2	3	L
27/07	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	3-1	3	4	W
22/07	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	3-3	6	3	D
17/07	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
04/05	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	7	4	W

Mashal Mubarek

LWDLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	1-3	2-5	9	1	L
26/08	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-2	4	8	L
19/08	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
14/08	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	0-2	4	4	L
07/08	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-2	3	1	L
02/08	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-3	3	1	L
27/07	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-2	1	3	L
22/07	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
17/07	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
02/05	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	1-3	1-3	0	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lokomotiv Tashkent vs Mashal Mubarek?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lokomotiv Tashkent win (69%). Probabilities: Lokomotiv Tashkent 69%, draw 18%, Mashal Mubarek 13%.

How many goals are expected in Lokomotiv Tashkent vs Mashal Mubarek?

The model expects 3.48 goals (Lokomotiv Tashkent 2.48 · Mashal Mubarek 1), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Lokomotiv Tashkent vs Mashal Mubarek?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.