Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 19/09, 17:15

Prediction: FC Bunyodkor vs FK Buxoro

Team pages: FC Bunyodkor · FK Buxoro

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.76Total

FC Bunyodkor1.19

FK Buxoro1.56

1X2

28% 27% 45%

FC Bunyodkor Draw FK Buxoro

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Bunyodkor 0-0-10 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLLL

FK Buxoro 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWDWWDLL

Head-to-head

FC Bunyodkor 3–3 FK Buxoro (6 last)

FK Buxoro1-0FC Bunyodkor
FC Bunyodkor2-4FK Buxoro
FC Bunyodkor2-1FK Buxoro
FC Bunyodkor1-0FK Buxoro
FC Bunyodkor2-0FK Buxoro
FC Bunyodkor1-2FK Buxoro

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Bunyodkor 1374 · FK Buxoro 1499

	FC Bunyodkor	Draw	FK Buxoro
Our model	28%	27%	45%
Market	28%	27%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Buxoro (rating 1374 vs 1499).
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Bunyodkor	FK Buxoro
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 2.2	1.6 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.4	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/30/70%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.7	1.6 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.3	3.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.30

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 09:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 3.20▼	Bet365 3.20
X	3.70 → 3.30▼	Pinn 3.51 ★
2	1.60 → 2.00▲	Pinn 2.10

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
14:03 +10’	4.50	3.70	1.60
17:31 +16’	3.50▼	3.40▼	1.83▲
22:42 +7’	3.25▼	3.30▼	1.95▲
08:55 +30’	3.20▼	3.30	2.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:17 +30’	3.53	3.72	1.90
19:38 +191’	3.15▼	3.51▼	2.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Bunyodkor 3–0–3 FK Buxoro

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/07/26 Uzbekistan PFL	FK Buxoro	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Bunyodkor
27/08/25 Uzbekistan Cup	FC Bunyodkor	2-4 HT 1-2	FK Buxoro
17/08/25 Uzbekistan PFL	FC Bunyodkor	2-1 HT 0-0	FK Buxoro
08/04/25 Uzbekistan Cup	FC Bunyodkor	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Buxoro
04/04/25 Uzbekistan PFL	FC Bunyodkor	2-0 HT 0-0	FK Buxoro
27/08/23 Uzbekistan PFL	FC Bunyodkor	1-2 HT 1-1	FK Buxoro

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	21	15	3	3	49	17	48
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	21	13	7	1	37	19	46
3	Navbahor Namangan	22	13	5	4	39	21	44
4	Lokomotiv Tashkent	21	10	5	6	36	27	35
5	FK Buxoro	21	10	4	7	31	27	34
6	AGMK	21	9	5	7	29	28	32
7	Nasaf Qarshi	21	8	7	6	29	20	31
8	FK Andijan	21	9	3	9	26	24	30
9	Dinamo Samarqand	22	8	6	8	33	34	30
10	Sogdiana Jizzakh	21	8	4	9	37	41	28
11	Qizilqum Zarafshon	21	8	2	11	20	29	26
12	Termez Surkhon	21	6	5	10	18	28	23
13	Xorazm Urganch	21	5	6	10	17	29	21
14	FK Kokand 1912	21	4	8	9	19	29	20
15	FC Bunyodkor	21	6	1	14	20	35	19
16	Mashal Mubarek	21	1	1	19	10	42	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Bunyodkor	FK Buxoro
Lokomotiv Tashkent	1-4 L	2-1 W
FK Kokand 1912	0-1 L	1-1 D
Navbahor Namangan	3-4 L	1-4 L
AGMK	2-3 L	2-0 W
Pakhtakor Tashkent	0-1 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 5 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FK Buxoro (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Bunyodkor

LLLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/09	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	0-3	4	2	L
04/09	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
26/08	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-3	1-4	11	1	L
20/08	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
14/08	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	3-4	0	4	L
08/08	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	1-3	2-3	3	1	L
26/07	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
21/07	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
16/07	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-3	2	2	L
03/05	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-1	5	5	L

FK Buxoro

LWLWDWWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-4	2	5	L
05/09	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	2-3	3	3	L
24/08	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
18/08	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	4-1	3	6	W
13/08	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
06/08	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	2-2	4	3	D
01/08	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-1	5	3	W
27/07	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
21/07	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
16/07	Neftchi Fergana Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-2	3	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Bunyodkor vs FK Buxoro?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Buxoro win (45%). Probabilities: FC Bunyodkor 28%, draw 27%, FK Buxoro 45%.

How many goals are expected in FC Bunyodkor vs FK Buxoro?

The model expects 2.76 goals (FC Bunyodkor 1.19 · FK Buxoro 1.56), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Bunyodkor vs FK Buxoro?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.