Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 20/09, 16:30

Prediction: Lokomotiv Tashkent vs Neftchi Fergana

Team pages: Lokomotiv Tashkent · Neftchi Fergana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.33Total

Lokomotiv Tashkent1.73

Neftchi Fergana1.6

1X2

40% 25% 35%

Lokomotiv Tashkent Draw Neftchi Fergana

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Lokomotiv Tashkent 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDWLWLWWDW

Neftchi Fergana 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWDDWWLWLW

Head-to-head

Lokomotiv Tashkent 1–2–3 Neftchi Fergana (6 last)

Neftchi Fergana3-1Lokomotiv Tashkent
Lokomotiv Tashkent2-3Neftchi Fergana
Neftchi Fergana1-1Lokomotiv Tashkent
Lokomotiv Tashkent1-3Neftchi Fergana
Neftchi Fergana0-1Lokomotiv Tashkent
Lokomotiv Tashkent1-1Neftchi Fergana

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Neftchi Fergana: 3-2-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lokomotiv Tashkent	Neftchi Fergana
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.3	2.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.2	2.5 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.87

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:06

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	3.38 → 3.38	Pinn 3.38
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.60
2	1.98 → 1.98	Pinn 1.98

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:49 +258’	3.38	3.60	1.98

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lokomotiv Tashkent 1–2–3 Neftchi Fergana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/03/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Neftchi Fergana	3-1 HT 1-1	Lokomotiv Tashkent
30/11/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Lokomotiv Tashkent	2-3 HT 2-2	Neftchi Fergana
27/06/24 Uzbekistan PFL	Neftchi Fergana	1-1 HT 0-0	Lokomotiv Tashkent
03/10/22 Uzbekistan PFL	Lokomotiv Tashkent	1-3 HT 0-1	Neftchi Fergana
05/05/22 Uzbekistan PFL	Neftchi Fergana	0-1 HT 0-0	Lokomotiv Tashkent
11/08/18 Uzbekistan PFL	Lokomotiv Tashkent	1-1 HT 1-0	Neftchi Fergana

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	21	15	3	3	49	17	48
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	21	13	7	1	37	19	46
3	Navbahor Namangan	22	13	5	4	39	21	44
4	Lokomotiv Tashkent	21	10	5	6	36	27	35
5	FK Buxoro	21	10	4	7	31	27	34
6	AGMK	21	9	5	7	29	28	32
7	Nasaf Qarshi	21	8	7	6	29	20	31
8	FK Andijan	21	9	3	9	26	24	30
9	Dinamo Samarqand	22	8	6	8	33	34	30
10	Sogdiana Jizzakh	21	8	4	9	37	41	28
11	Qizilqum Zarafshon	21	8	2	11	20	29	26
12	Termez Surkhon	21	6	5	10	18	28	23
13	Xorazm Urganch	21	5	6	10	17	29	21
14	FK Kokand 1912	21	4	8	9	19	29	20
15	FC Bunyodkor	21	6	1	14	20	35	19
16	Mashal Mubarek	21	1	1	19	10	42	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lokomotiv Tashkent	Neftchi Fergana
Navbahor Namangan	1-1 D	1-1 D
Dinamo Samarqand	2-1 W	0-0 D
FK Buxoro	1-2 L	1-4 L
Sogdiana Jizzakh	3-1 W	3-0 W
FK Andijan	3-3 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lokomotiv Tashkent

DDWLWLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Mashal Mubarek Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	3-0	8	4	W
04/09	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
26/08	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	3-0	4-1	4	1	W
20/08	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
15/08	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	1-2	2	2	L
07/08	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	2-1	2-1	5	0	W
01/08	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	1-2	1-2	2	3	L
27/07	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	3-1	3	4	W
22/07	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	3-3	6	3	D
17/07	Pakhtakor Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-1	4	5	D

Neftchi Fergana

WWDDWWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/09	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-1	5	2	W
04/09	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	0-4	2-6	5	3	L
23/08	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	3-0	18	4	W
18/08	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-4	5	6	L
13/08	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	3-0	4	5	W
08/08	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	5-0	3	3	W
03/08	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
28/07	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-1	7	9	D
21/07	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	3-1	5-1	6	5	W
16/07	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	2-1	6	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lokomotiv Tashkent vs Neftchi Fergana?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lokomotiv Tashkent win (40%). Probabilities: Lokomotiv Tashkent 40%, draw 25%, Neftchi Fergana 35%.

How many goals are expected in Lokomotiv Tashkent vs Neftchi Fergana?

The model expects 3.33 goals (Lokomotiv Tashkent 1.73 · Neftchi Fergana 1.6), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Lokomotiv Tashkent vs Neftchi Fergana?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.