Football · Uzbekistan PFL · 19/09, 15:00

Prediction: Mashal Mubarek vs Pakhtakor Tashkent

Team pages: Mashal Mubarek · Pakhtakor Tashkent

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

Mashal Mubarek0.57

Pakhtakor Tashkent2.1

1X2

9% 17% 74%

Mashal Mubarek Draw Pakhtakor Tashkent

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-2 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Mashal Mubarek 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

WDLLLLLLLL

Pakhtakor Tashkent 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

DWWDDWDDWW

Head-to-head

Mashal Mubarek 0–6 Pakhtakor Tashkent (6 last)

Pakhtakor Tashkent2-1Mashal Mubarek
Pakhtakor Tashkent3-1Mashal Mubarek
Mashal Mubarek0-1Pakhtakor Tashkent
Pakhtakor Tashkent5-0Mashal Mubarek
Mashal Mubarek0-1Pakhtakor Tashkent
Pakhtakor Tashkent3-0Mashal Mubarek

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mashal Mubarek 1402 · Pakhtakor Tashkent 1573

	Mashal Mubarek	Draw	Pakhtakor Tashkent
Our model	8%	20%	72%
Market	10%	15%	75%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pakhtakor Tashkent (rating 1402 vs 1573).
H2H favours Pakhtakor Tashkent: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mashal Mubarek	Pakhtakor Tashkent
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 2.1	1.5 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.9 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.2	2.8 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

19.00

X6.00

21.22

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2)1.80

2 (-2)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 08:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	9.00 → 9.50▲	Pinn 11.08 ★
X	6.00 → 5.50▼	Pinn 5.68
2	1.22 → 1.22	Pinn 1.23

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 10.5% Pinnacle margin 8.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:32 +17’	9.00	6.00	1.22
00:11 +13’	9.00	5.50▼	1.25▲
05:00 +36’	11.00▲	5.25▼	1.22▼
08:39 +14’	9.50▼	5.50▲	1.22

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:46 +3’	11.19	5.84	1.22
23:27 +57’	11.10▼	5.71▼	1.23▲
02:13 +6’	11.09▼	5.69▼	1.23
12:56 +2’	11.08▼	5.68▼	1.23▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mashal Mubarek 0–0–6 Pakhtakor Tashkent

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/04/26 Uzbekistan PFL	Pakhtakor Tashkent	2-1 HT 2-0	Mashal Mubarek
26/08/25 Uzbekistan Cup	Pakhtakor Tashkent	3-1 HT 3-0	Mashal Mubarek
01/08/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Mashal Mubarek	0-1 HT 0-0	Pakhtakor Tashkent
02/04/25 Uzbekistan PFL	Pakhtakor Tashkent	5-0 HT 3-0	Mashal Mubarek
13/08/21 Uzbekistan PFL	Mashal Mubarek	0-1 HT 0-1	Pakhtakor Tashkent
15/03/21 Uzbekistan PFL	Pakhtakor Tashkent	3-0 HT 2-0	Mashal Mubarek

Standings · Uzbekistan PFL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Fergana	21	15	3	3	49	17	48
2	Pakhtakor Tashkent	21	13	7	1	37	19	46
3	Navbahor Namangan	22	13	5	4	39	21	44
4	Lokomotiv Tashkent	21	10	5	6	36	27	35
5	FK Buxoro	21	10	4	7	31	27	34
6	AGMK	21	9	5	7	29	28	32
7	Nasaf Qarshi	21	8	7	6	29	20	31
8	FK Andijan	21	9	3	9	26	24	30
9	Dinamo Samarqand	22	8	6	8	33	34	30
10	Sogdiana Jizzakh	21	8	4	9	37	41	28
11	Qizilqum Zarafshon	21	8	2	11	20	29	26
12	Termez Surkhon	21	6	5	10	18	28	23
13	Xorazm Urganch	21	5	6	10	17	29	21
14	FK Kokand 1912	21	4	8	9	19	29	20
15	FC Bunyodkor	21	6	1	14	20	35	19
16	Mashal Mubarek	21	1	1	19	10	42	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mashal Mubarek	Pakhtakor Tashkent
Lokomotiv Tashkent	0-3 L	1-1 D
FK Andijan	0-1 L	3-0 W
Xorazm Urganch	0-2 L	2-1 W
AGMK	1-2 L	3-1 W
Nasaf Qarshi	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 4 L	4 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Pakhtakor Tashkent (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mashal Mubarek

WDLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-3	0	4	L
05/09	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	1-3	2-5	9	1	L
26/08	Navbahor Namangan Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-2	4	8	L
19/08	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
14/08	Qizilqum Zarafshon Uzbekistan PFL	0-2	0-2	4	4	L
07/08	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	0-2	3	1	L
02/08	Sogdiana Jizzakh Uzbekistan PFL	0-1	1-3	3	1	L
27/07	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-2	1	3	L
22/07	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
17/07	FK Kokand 1912 Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	3	2	W

Pakhtakor Tashkent

DWWDDWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/09	AGMK Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	3-1	1	3	W
04/09	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	3-0	7	2	W
25/08	Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
21/08	Termez Surkhon Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
16/08	Nasaf Qarshi Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
06/08	FK Buxoro Uzbekistan PFL	2-0	2-2	6	3	D
01/08	FK Andijan Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
26/07	FC Bunyodkor Uzbekistan PFL	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
21/07	Xorazm Urganch Uzbekistan PFL	1-1	2-1	7	4	W
17/07	Lokomotiv Tashkent Uzbekistan PFL	1-0	1-1	4	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mashal Mubarek vs Pakhtakor Tashkent?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Pakhtakor Tashkent win (74%). Probabilities: Mashal Mubarek 9%, draw 17%, Pakhtakor Tashkent 74%.

How many goals are expected in Mashal Mubarek vs Pakhtakor Tashkent?

The model expects 2.67 goals (Mashal Mubarek 0.57 · Pakhtakor Tashkent 2.1), with a 60% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Mashal Mubarek vs Pakhtakor Tashkent?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.