Football · Guatemala Primera Division · 01/10, 03:30

Prediction: CSD Amatitlan vs Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa

Team pages: CSD Amatitlan · Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.18Total

CSD Amatitlan1.16

Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa1.02

1X2

38% 30% 31%

CSD Amatitlan Draw Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

CSD Amatitlan 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLWWL

Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWLDWDWWLD

Head-to-head

CSD Amatitlan 0–1 Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa (1 last)

Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa2-0CSD Amatitlan

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CSD Amatitlan 1437 · Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa 1514

	CSD Amatitlan	Draw	Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa
Our model	38%	32%	31%
Market	39%	29%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.18 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa (rating 1437 vs 1514).
Cards-heavy: 12.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CSD Amatitlan	Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 2	1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/33/33%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.3	1.5 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 1.3	6.8 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.10

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:11 +5’	2.30	3.10	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CSD Amatitlan 0–0–1 Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/08/26 Guatemala Primera Division	Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa	2-0	CSD Amatitlan

Standings · Guatemala Primera Division · Primera Division 26/27, Apertura, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Aguacatan FC	12	7	3	2	23	11	24
2	Huehuetecos FC	12	7	1	4	22	10	22
3	Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa	12	5	4	3	15	11	19
4	Deportivo Iztapa	12	5	4	3	17	15	19
5	Quiche FC	12	5	3	4	10	12	18
6	Juventud Copalera	12	5	2	5	14	14	17
7	Deportivo Gomerano	12	4	2	6	11	15	14
8	Chichicasteco FC	11	3	3	5	14	19	12
9	Coatepeque FC	11	3	2	6	10	15	11
10	CSD Amatitlan	12	3	0	9	9	23	9

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CSD Amatitlan	Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa
Quiche FC	0-2 L	0-1 L
Juventud Copalera	3-0 W	1-0 W
Chichicasteco FC	2-1 W	1-0 W
Aguacatan FC	0-5 L	0-2 L
Huehuetecos FC	1-2 L	1-1 D
Deportivo Gomerano	0-3 L	3-0 W
Deportivo Iztapa	0-2 L	1-1 D
Coatepeque FC	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 6 L	3 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CSD Amatitlan

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Quiche FC Guatemala Primera Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
20/09	Juventud Copalera Guatemala Primera Division	1-0	3-0	4	11	W
14/09	Chichicasteco FC Guatemala Primera Division	–	2-1	–	–	W
06/09	Aguacatan FC Guatemala Primera Division	–	0-5	–	–	L
30/08	Huehuetecos FC Guatemala Primera Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
23/08	Deportivo Gomerano Guatemala Primera Division	–	0-3	–	–	L
19/08	Deportivo Iztapa Guatemala Primera Division	0-1	0-2	5	7	L
16/08	Coatepeque FC Guatemala Primera Division	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
12/08	Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa Guatemala Primera Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
09/08	Quiche FC Guatemala Primera Division	–	1-2	–	–	L

Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa

LWLDWDWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Huehuetecos FC Guatemala Primera Division	1-1	1-1	5	9	D
20/09	Quiche FC Guatemala Primera Division	–	0-1	–	–	L
13/09	Deportivo Gomerano Guatemala Primera Division	–	3-0	–	–	W
06/09	Juventud Copalera Guatemala Primera Division	0-0	1-0	8	6	W
30/08	Deportivo Iztapa Guatemala Primera Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
23/08	Chichicasteco FC Guatemala Primera Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
19/08	Coatepeque FC Guatemala Primera Division	0-1	1-1	3	11	D
16/08	Aguacatan FC Guatemala Primera Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
12/08	CSD Amatitlan Guatemala Primera Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
10/08	Huehuetecos FC Guatemala Primera Division	0-1	0-3	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CSD Amatitlan vs Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CSD Amatitlan win (38%). Probabilities: CSD Amatitlan 38%, draw 30%, Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa 31%.

How many goals are expected in CSD Amatitlan vs Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa?

The model expects 2.18 goals (CSD Amatitlan 1.16 · Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa 1.02), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in CSD Amatitlan vs Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.