Football · Guatemala Primera Division · 07/10, 21:00

Prediction: Coatepeque FC vs Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa

Team pages: Coatepeque FC · Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.15Total

Coatepeque FC1.43

Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa0.71

1X2

54% 27% 18%

Coatepeque FC Draw Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Coatepeque FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDLWLDLLWW

Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWDWWLDL

Head-to-head

Coatepeque FC 0–1–0 Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa (1 last)

Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa1-1Coatepeque FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Coatepeque FC 1505 · Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa 1507

	Coatepeque FC	Draw	Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa
Our model	53%	29%	17%
Market	55%	26%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.15 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 12.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Coatepeque FC	Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.1	1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.2	0.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	67/33/0%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.2 / 6.8	1.5 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.5	7.8 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.50

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:49 +5’	1.65	3.50	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Coatepeque FC 0–1–0 Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/08/26 Guatemala Primera Division	Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa	1-1 HT 0-1	Coatepeque FC

Standings · Guatemala Primera Division · Primera Division 26/27, Apertura, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Huehuetecos FC	13	8	1	4	24	10	25
2	Aguacatan FC	13	7	3	3	23	13	24
3	Quiche FC	14	6	3	5	11	13	21
4	Juventud Copalera	13	6	2	5	18	16	20
5	Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa	13	5	4	4	15	13	19
6	Deportivo Iztapa	14	5	4	5	19	20	19
7	Deportivo Gomerano	13	5	2	6	14	15	17
8	Coatepeque FC	12	4	2	6	11	15	14
9	Chichicasteco FC	12	3	3	6	14	22	12
10	CSD Amatitlan	13	4	0	9	11	23	12

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Coatepeque FC	Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa
CSD Amatitlan	3-0 W	0-2 L
Quiche FC	1-0 W	0-1 L
Juventud Copalera	0-1 L	1-0 W
Chichicasteco FC	1-2 L	1-0 W
Aguacatan FC	3-3 D	0-2 L
Huehuetecos FC	0-1 L	1-1 D
Deportivo Gomerano	2-1 W	3-0 W
Deportivo Iztapa	0-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Coatepeque FC

WDLWLDLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	CSD Amatitlan Guatemala Primera Division	1-0	3-0	1	7	W
30/09	Quiche FC Guatemala Primera Division	1-0	1-0	12	3	W
27/09	Juventud Copalera Guatemala Primera Division	–	0-1	–	–	L
20/09	Chichicasteco FC Guatemala Primera Division	1-1	1-2	7	4	L
13/09	Aguacatan FC Guatemala Primera Division	–	3-3	–	–	D
07/09	Huehuetecos FC Guatemala Primera Division	–	0-1	–	–	L
30/08	Deportivo Gomerano Guatemala Primera Division	2-0	2-1	1	4	W
23/08	Deportivo Iztapa Guatemala Primera Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
19/08	Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa Guatemala Primera Division	1-0	1-1	6	11	D
16/08	CSD Amatitlan Guatemala Primera Division	0-0	1-0	14	4	W

Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa

WLDWDWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/09	CSD Amatitlan Guatemala Primera Division	0-2	0-2	6	7	L
27/09	Huehuetecos FC Guatemala Primera Division	1-1	1-1	5	9	D
20/09	Quiche FC Guatemala Primera Division	–	0-1	–	–	L
13/09	Deportivo Gomerano Guatemala Primera Division	–	3-0	–	–	W
06/09	Juventud Copalera Guatemala Primera Division	0-0	1-0	8	6	W
30/08	Deportivo Iztapa Guatemala Primera Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
23/08	Chichicasteco FC Guatemala Primera Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
19/08	Coatepeque FC Guatemala Primera Division	0-1	1-1	3	11	D
16/08	Aguacatan FC Guatemala Primera Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
12/08	CSD Amatitlan Guatemala Primera Division	–	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Coatepeque FC vs Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Coatepeque FC win (54%). Probabilities: Coatepeque FC 54%, draw 27%, Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa 18%.

How many goals are expected in Coatepeque FC vs Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa?

The model expects 2.15 goals (Coatepeque FC 1.43 · Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa 0.71), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Coatepeque FC vs Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.