Football · Guatemala Primera Division · 07/10, 23:00

Prediction: AFF Guatemala vs Nueva Santa Rosa CDF

Team pages: AFF Guatemala · Nueva Santa Rosa CDF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.49Total

AFF Guatemala1.33

Nueva Santa Rosa CDF1.16

1X2

40% 28% 32%

AFF Guatemala Draw Nueva Santa Rosa CDF

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

AFF Guatemala 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLWLLL

Nueva Santa Rosa CDF 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

AFF Guatemala 2–2–2 Nueva Santa Rosa CDF (6 last)

Nueva Santa Rosa CDF2-0AFF Guatemala
AFF Guatemala2-1Nueva Santa Rosa CDF
Nueva Santa Rosa CDF1-1AFF Guatemala
Nueva Santa Rosa CDF1-0AFF Guatemala
AFF Guatemala3-1Nueva Santa Rosa CDF
AFF Guatemala0-0Nueva Santa Rosa CDF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AFF Guatemala 1426 · Nueva Santa Rosa CDF 1566

	AFF Guatemala	Draw	Nueva Santa Rosa CDF
Our model	39%	30%	31%
Market	41%	27%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nueva Santa Rosa CDF (rating 1426 vs 1566).
High corners: 14 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 13.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AFF Guatemala	Nueva Santa Rosa CDF
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 2	1.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 0.9	1.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/38/63%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 7.4	3.2 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 1.1	8.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.30

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:52 +3’	2.20	3.30	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AFF Guatemala 2–2–2 Nueva Santa Rosa CDF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/08/26 Guatemala Primera Division	Nueva Santa Rosa CDF	2-0 HT 0-0	AFF Guatemala
15/03/26 Guatemala Primera Division	AFF Guatemala	2-1 HT 2-0	Nueva Santa Rosa CDF
31/01/26 Guatemala Primera Division	Nueva Santa Rosa CDF	1-1 HT 1-1	AFF Guatemala
01/10/25 Guatemala Primera Division	Nueva Santa Rosa CDF	1-0 HT 1-0	AFF Guatemala
17/08/25 Guatemala Primera Division	AFF Guatemala	3-1 HT 1-1	Nueva Santa Rosa CDF
05/05/24 Guatemala Segunda Division	AFF Guatemala	0-0 HT 0-0	Nueva Santa Rosa CDF

Standings · Guatemala Primera Division · Primera Division 26/27, Apertura, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nueva Santa Rosa CDF	14	10	0	4	22	18	30
2	Mictlán	12	8	3	1	25	11	27
3	CS Deportivo Sacachispas	13	8	2	3	25	10	26
4	San Benito FC	12	6	2	4	22	17	20
5	CSD Sayaxche	14	5	4	5	15	12	19
6	Deportivo Fraijanes	13	5	2	6	23	21	17
7	CSD Chiquimulilla	13	5	1	7	14	14	16
8	CD Achuapa	13	4	2	7	8	16	14
9	AFF Guatemala	13	4	0	9	8	23	12
10	Champs Academy	13	1	2	10	6	26	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AFF Guatemala	Nueva Santa Rosa CDF
CD Achuapa	0-1 L	1-0 W
Deportivo Fraijanes	1-2 L	2-1 W
Champs Academy	0-2 L	1-0 W
CSD Chiquimulilla	1-0 W	2-1 W
CS Deportivo Sacachispas	0-3 L	2-1 W
San Benito FC	0-4 L	1-2 L
Mictlán	0-3 L	4-3 W
CSD Sayaxche	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 6 L	7 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Nueva Santa Rosa CDF (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AFF Guatemala

LLWLLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	CD Achuapa Guatemala Primera Division	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
30/09	Deportivo Fraijanes Guatemala Primera Division	0-2	1-2	10	7	L
27/09	Champs Academy Guatemala Primera Division	0-0	0-2	5	12	L
19/09	CSD Chiquimulilla Guatemala Primera Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
13/09	CS Deportivo Sacachispas Guatemala Primera Division	0-0	0-3	1	4	L
06/09	San Benito FC Guatemala Primera Division	–	0-4	–	–	L
29/08	Mictlán Guatemala Primera Division	0-1	0-3	7	11	L
22/08	CSD Sayaxche Guatemala Primera Division	0-1	2-1	15	4	W
20/08	Nueva Santa Rosa CDF Guatemala Primera Division	0-0	0-2	8	7	L
15/08	CD Achuapa Guatemala Primera Division	0-2	1-2	9	4	L

Nueva Santa Rosa CDF

LWLWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	CSD Sayaxche Guatemala Primera Division	0-0	1-0	12	4	W
01/10	Mictlán Guatemala Primera Division	3-1	4-3	4	12	W
27/09	CD Achuapa Guatemala Primera Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
20/09	Deportivo Fraijanes Guatemala Primera Division	–	2-1	–	–	W
13/09	Champs Academy Guatemala Primera Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
06/09	CSD Chiquimulilla Guatemala Primera Division	1-1	2-1	2	12	W
30/08	CS Deportivo Sacachispas Guatemala Primera Division	2-0	2-1	4	8	W
23/08	San Benito FC Guatemala Primera Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
20/08	AFF Guatemala Guatemala Primera Division	0-0	2-0	11	7	W
16/08	CSD Sayaxche Guatemala Primera Division	–	0-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AFF Guatemala vs Nueva Santa Rosa CDF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AFF Guatemala win (40%). Probabilities: AFF Guatemala 40%, draw 28%, Nueva Santa Rosa CDF 32%.

How many goals are expected in AFF Guatemala vs Nueva Santa Rosa CDF?

The model expects 2.49 goals (AFF Guatemala 1.33 · Nueva Santa Rosa CDF 1.16), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in AFF Guatemala vs Nueva Santa Rosa CDF?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.