Football · Guatemala Primera Division · 30/09, 23:00

Prediction: AFF Guatemala vs Deportivo Fraijanes

Team pages: AFF Guatemala · Deportivo Fraijanes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

AFF Guatemala1.6

Deportivo Fraijanes1.21

1X2

45% 27% 28%

AFF Guatemala Draw Deportivo Fraijanes

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

AFF Guatemala 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Deportivo Fraijanes 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

AFF Guatemala 1–3 Deportivo Fraijanes (4 last)

Deportivo Fraijanes1-2AFF Guatemala
Deportivo Fraijanes5-0AFF Guatemala
AFF Guatemala0-2Deportivo Fraijanes
AFF Guatemala0-1Deportivo Fraijanes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AFF Guatemala 1461 · Deportivo Fraijanes 1462

	AFF Guatemala	Draw	Deportivo Fraijanes
Our model	45%	27%	28%
Market	45%	27%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Deportivo Fraijanes: 3-0-1.
High corners: 14.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AFF Guatemala	Deportivo Fraijanes
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.8	1.7 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 0.6	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/57/43%	29/57/14%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 7	3.7 / 7.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 1.3	5.4 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.40

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:55 +28’	2.00	3.40	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AFF Guatemala 1–0–3 Deportivo Fraijanes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/08/26 Guatemala Primera Division	Deportivo Fraijanes	1-2 HT 0-0	AFF Guatemala
22/03/23 Guatemala Segunda Division	Deportivo Fraijanes	5-0 HT 4-0	AFF Guatemala
16/02/23 Guatemala Segunda Division	AFF Guatemala	0-2 HT 0-1	Deportivo Fraijanes
03/10/22 Guatemala Segunda Division	AFF Guatemala	0-1 HT 0-0	Deportivo Fraijanes

Standings · Guatemala Primera Division · Primera Division 26/27, Apertura, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Mictlán	11	8	3	0	22	7	27
2	Nueva Santa Rosa CDF	12	8	0	4	17	15	24
3	CS Deportivo Sacachispas	12	7	2	3	23	10	23
4	San Benito FC	11	6	1	4	21	16	19
5	CSD Sayaxche	12	5	3	4	14	10	18
6	CSD Chiquimulilla	12	5	1	6	14	12	16
7	Deportivo Fraijanes	12	4	2	6	21	20	14
8	CD Achuapa	12	4	1	7	7	15	13
9	AFF Guatemala	12	4	0	8	7	21	12
10	Champs Academy	12	1	1	10	5	25	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AFF Guatemala	Deportivo Fraijanes
Champs Academy	0-2 L	3-1 W
CSD Chiquimulilla	1-0 W	1-3 L
CS Deportivo Sacachispas	0-3 L	2-3 L
San Benito FC	0-4 L	2-3 L
Mictlán	0-3 L	2-4 L
CSD Sayaxche	2-1 W	1-1 D
Nueva Santa Rosa CDF	0-2 L	1-2 L
CD Achuapa	1-2 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 6 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Fraijanes (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AFF Guatemala

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Champs Academy Guatemala Primera Division	0-0	0-2	5	12	L
19/09	CSD Chiquimulilla Guatemala Primera Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
13/09	CS Deportivo Sacachispas Guatemala Primera Division	0-0	0-3	1	4	L
06/09	San Benito FC Guatemala Primera Division	–	0-4	–	–	L
29/08	Mictlán Guatemala Primera Division	0-1	0-3	7	11	L
22/08	CSD Sayaxche Guatemala Primera Division	0-1	2-1	15	4	W
20/08	Nueva Santa Rosa CDF Guatemala Primera Division	0-0	0-2	8	7	L
15/08	CD Achuapa Guatemala Primera Division	0-2	1-2	9	4	L
12/08	Deportivo Fraijanes Guatemala Primera Division	0-0	2-1	4	8	W
08/08	Champs Academy Guatemala Primera Division	–	1-0	–	–	W

Deportivo Fraijanes

DLLLLWLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	CSD Sayaxche Guatemala Primera Division	0-0	1-1	18	4	D
20/09	Nueva Santa Rosa CDF Guatemala Primera Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
13/09	CD Achuapa Guatemala Primera Division	2-0	3-0	5	7	W
06/09	Mictlán Guatemala Primera Division	1-1	2-4	1	6	L
30/08	Champs Academy Guatemala Primera Division	2-1	3-1	6	9	W
23/08	CSD Chiquimulilla Guatemala Primera Division	0-1	1-3	4	5	L
19/08	CS Deportivo Sacachispas Guatemala Primera Division	2-2	2-3	8	3	L
16/08	San Benito FC Guatemala Primera Division	–	2-3	–	–	L
12/08	AFF Guatemala Guatemala Primera Division	0-0	1-2	8	8	L
09/08	CSD Sayaxche Guatemala Primera Division	–	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AFF Guatemala vs Deportivo Fraijanes?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AFF Guatemala win (45%). Probabilities: AFF Guatemala 45%, draw 27%, Deportivo Fraijanes 28%.

How many goals are expected in AFF Guatemala vs Deportivo Fraijanes?

The model expects 2.8 goals (AFF Guatemala 1.6 · Deportivo Fraijanes 1.21), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in AFF Guatemala vs Deportivo Fraijanes?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.