Football · Croatia HNL · 12/09, 17:00

Prediction: Hajduk Split vs Slaven Belupo

Team pages: Hajduk Split · Slaven Belupo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.57Total

Hajduk Split2.54

Slaven Belupo1.04

1X2

69% 18% 13%

Hajduk Split Draw Slaven Belupo

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Hajduk Split 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLDWLDWWWW

Slaven Belupo 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLLWLW

Head-to-head

Hajduk Split 3–3–0 Slaven Belupo (6 last)

Slaven Belupo2-2Hajduk Split
Hajduk Split2-0Slaven Belupo
Slaven Belupo0-0Hajduk Split
Hajduk Split3-0Slaven Belupo
Slaven Belupo0-1Hajduk Split
Hajduk Split0-0Slaven Belupo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hajduk Split 1607 · Slaven Belupo 1434

	Hajduk Split	Draw	Slaven Belupo
Our model	69%	18%	13%
Market	69%	18%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 3.57 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hajduk Split (rating 1607 vs 1434).
H2H favours Hajduk Split: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hajduk Split	Slaven Belupo
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.2	0.8 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.6	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.8	2.1 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.3	2.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.30

X5.00

27.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.79

Under 32.01

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Pinn 1.32
X	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.37
2	7.00 → 7.00	Pinn 7.54 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:10 +6’	1.30	5.00	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:51 +85’	1.32	5.37	7.54

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Hajduk Split 3–3–0 Slaven Belupo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/04/26 Croatia HNL	Slaven Belupo	2-2 HT 1-1	Hajduk Split
07/02/26 Croatia HNL	Hajduk Split	2-0 HT 2-0	Slaven Belupo
02/11/25 Croatia HNL	Slaven Belupo	0-0 HT 0-0	Hajduk Split
17/08/25 Croatia HNL	Hajduk Split	3-0 HT 0-0	Slaven Belupo
05/04/25 Croatia HNL	Slaven Belupo	0-1 HT 0-1	Hajduk Split
26/01/25 Croatia HNL	Hajduk Split	0-0 HT 0-0	Slaven Belupo

Standings · Croatia HNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hajduk Split	6	4	1	1	15	5	13
2	Dinamo Zagreb	5	4	1	0	12	3	13
3	NK Varazdin	6	4	1	1	11	5	13
4	NK Osijek	6	4	0	2	13	9	12
5	HNK Rijeka	5	3	1	1	9	6	10
6	Istra 1961	6	1	3	2	11	10	6
7	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	6	2	0	4	8	12	6
8	Slaven Belupo	6	2	0	4	5	13	6
9	NK Rudes	6	1	0	5	6	19	3
10	HNK Gorica	6	0	1	5	2	10	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hajduk Split	Slaven Belupo
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	2-0 W	2-1 W
NK Osijek	4-0 W	0-3 L
HNK Gorica	2-1 W	2-0 W
Istra 1961	2-2 D	0-3 L
NK Varazdin	1-2 L	1-4 L
Dinamo Zagreb	0-2 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Hajduk Split (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hajduk Split

WLDWLDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	NK Rudes Croatia HNL	2-0	4-0	7	0	W
31/08	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Croatia HNL	1-0	2-0	7	5	W
23/08	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	1-0	4-0	0	5	W
16/08	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
09/08	Istra 1961 Croatia HNL	1-1	2-2	6	4	D
02/08	NK Varazdin Croatia HNL	0-0	1-2	6	4	L
22/05	Vukovar 91 Croatia HNL	3-2	6-3	8	2	W
16/05	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Croatia HNL	1-1	1-1	4	1	D
09/05	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
03/05	NK Varazdin Croatia HNL	2-1	3-1	4	5	W

Slaven Belupo

LWLLLLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Croatia HNL	0-0	2-1	5	7	W
30/08	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	0-2	0-3	2	1	L
22/08	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	2-0	2-0	5	3	W
15/08	Istra 1961 Croatia HNL	0-2	0-3	3	5	L
09/08	NK Varazdin Croatia HNL	0-3	1-4	5	2	L
31/07	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
22/05	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	0-0	0-2	2	0	L
17/05	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	1-0	1-4	5	1	L
10/05	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
04/05	Istra 1961 Croatia HNL	1-2	1-3	12	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hajduk Split vs Slaven Belupo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hajduk Split win (69%). Probabilities: Hajduk Split 69%, draw 18%, Slaven Belupo 13%.

How many goals are expected in Hajduk Split vs Slaven Belupo?

The model expects 3.57 goals (Hajduk Split 2.54 · Slaven Belupo 1.04), with a 56% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Hajduk Split vs Slaven Belupo?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.