Football · Croatia HNL · 19/09, 17:00

Prediction: NK Varazdin vs NK Osijek

Team pages: NK Varazdin · NK Osijek

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.73Total

NK Varazdin1.62

NK Osijek1.12

1X2

48% 27% 25%

NK Varazdin Draw NK Osijek

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Varazdin 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWLWDD

NK Osijek 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWLWLW

Head-to-head

NK Varazdin 3–3–0 NK Osijek (6 last)

NK Osijek0-2NK Varazdin
NK Varazdin2-1NK Osijek
NK Varazdin1-1NK Osijek
NK Osijek0-0NK Varazdin
NK Varazdin0-0NK Osijek
NK Varazdin2-1NK Osijek

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Varazdin 1605 · NK Osijek 1510

	NK Varazdin	Draw	NK Osijek
Our model	48%	27%	25%
Market	48%	27%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Varazdin (rating 1605 vs 1510).
H2H favours NK Varazdin: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Varazdin	NK Osijek
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.8	1.9 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0	1.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 3.7	2.7 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.30

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 22:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 1.85▼	Pinn 2.00
X	3.20 → 3.30▲	Bet365 3.30
2	3.00 → 3.50▲	Pinn 4.18 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.9% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:26 +29’	2.10	3.20	3.00
02:48 +3’	2.00▼	3.25▲	3.25▲
22:43 +4’	1.85▼	3.30▲	3.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:15 +18’	2.08	2.89	3.99
19:16 +48’	2.16▲	2.95▲	3.77▼
11:12 +10’	2.17▲	2.93▼	3.77
22:23 +46’	2.13▼	2.96▲	3.85▲
23:29 +40’	2.11▼	2.97▲	3.90▲
05:08	2.12▲	2.97	3.87▼
17:02 +40’	2.01▼	3.10▲	4.19▲
22:27 +20’	1.98▼	3.17▲	4.22▲
00:37 +6’	1.98	3.18▲	4.22
05:01 +78’	1.98	3.20▲	4.25▲
09:04 +18’	2.00▲	3.21▲	4.18▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Varazdin 3–3–0 NK Osijek

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/04/26 Croatia HNL	NK Osijek	0-2 HT 0-2	NK Varazdin
08/02/26 Croatia HNL	NK Varazdin	2-1 HT 1-1	NK Osijek
03/12/25 Croatia Cup	NK Varazdin	1-1 HT 0-1	NK Osijek
02/11/25 Croatia HNL	NK Osijek	0-0 HT 0-0	NK Varazdin
17/08/25 Croatia HNL	NK Varazdin	0-0 HT 0-0	NK Osijek
17/05/25 Croatia HNL	NK Varazdin	2-1 HT 2-1	NK Osijek

Standings · Croatia HNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hajduk Split	7	5	1	1	16	5	16
2	NK Osijek	8	5	1	2	17	11	16
3	NK Varazdin	8	4	3	1	13	7	15
4	Dinamo Zagreb	6	4	1	1	14	7	13
5	HNK Rijeka	6	3	2	1	10	7	11
6	Istra 1961	8	2	3	3	14	13	9
7	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	7	2	1	4	9	13	7
8	Slaven Belupo	8	2	1	5	7	16	7
9	HNK Gorica	8	1	2	5	5	12	5
10	NK Rudes	8	1	1	6	10	24	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Varazdin	NK Osijek
HNK Gorica	2-2 D	2-0 W
Istra 1961	0-0 D	0-1 L
NK Rudes	2-0 W	6-1 W
Dinamo Zagreb	1-3 L	4-2 W
HNK Rijeka	2-0 W	1-4 L
Slaven Belupo	4-1 W	3-0 W
Hajduk Split	2-1 W	0-4 L
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 1 L	5 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: NK Osijek (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Varazdin

DWWWWWLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/09	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	0-0	2-2	3	3	D
04/09	Istra 1961 Croatia HNL	0-0	0-0	8	6	D
29/08	NK Rudes Croatia HNL	0-0	2-0	9	3	W
22/08	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	1-0	1-3	2	4	L
16/08	HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL	2-0	2-0	2	3	W
09/08	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	3-0	4-1	5	2	W
02/08	Hajduk Split Croatia HNL	0-0	2-1	1	4	W
23/05	Istra 1961 Croatia HNL	2-0	2-0	2	5	W
15/05	Vukovar 91 Croatia HNL	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
09/05	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Croatia HNL	1-0	1-1	2	5	D

NK Osijek

LLWWWWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	2-0	4-2	2	7	W
05/09	HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL	1-3	1-4	3	2	L
30/08	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	2-0	3-0	4	1	W
23/08	Hajduk Split Croatia HNL	0-1	0-4	2	5	L
15/08	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Croatia HNL	0-0	1-0	9	6	W
08/08	NK Rudes Croatia HNL	4-0	6-1	4	2	W
01/08	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	2-0	2-0	8	3	W
22/05	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	0-0	2-0	16	0	W
16/05	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	0-2	0-2	9	4	L
10/05	Istra 1961 Croatia HNL	0-1	0-1	1	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Varazdin vs NK Osijek?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Varazdin win (48%). Probabilities: NK Varazdin 48%, draw 27%, NK Osijek 25%.

How many goals are expected in NK Varazdin vs NK Osijek?

The model expects 2.73 goals (NK Varazdin 1.62 · NK Osijek 1.12), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Varazdin vs NK Osijek?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.