Football · Croatia HNL · 19/09, 20:00

Prediction: Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica

Team pages: Istra 1961 · HNK Gorica

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

Istra 19611.64

HNK Gorica1.02

1X2

51% 26% 23%

Istra 1961 Draw HNK Gorica

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Istra 1961 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDLLDWLDDW

HNK Gorica 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLLDLD

Head-to-head

Istra 1961 1–1–4 HNK Gorica (6 last)

HNK Gorica1-0Istra 1961
Istra 19610-2HNK Gorica
HNK Gorica1-0Istra 1961
Istra 19611-0HNK Gorica
HNK Gorica3-2Istra 1961
Istra 19610-0HNK Gorica

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Istra 1961 1517 · HNK Gorica 1427

	Istra 1961	Draw	HNK Gorica
Our model	51%	27%	22%
Market	51%	26%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Istra 1961 (rating 1517 vs 1427).
H2H favours HNK Gorica: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Istra 1961	HNK Gorica
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	0.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.5	0.7 / 2.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	3.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.50

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 18:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.75▼	Pinn 1.85
X	3.30 → 3.50▲	Pinn 3.63
2	3.40 → 3.90▲	Pinn 4.23 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:13 +51’	1.95	3.30	3.40
04:25 +3’	1.80▼	3.40▲	3.80▲
18:46 +4’	1.75▼	3.50▲	3.90▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:21 +18’	1.92	3.46	3.71
19:13 +57’	1.93▲	3.50▲	3.76▲
09:29 +54’	1.89▼	3.54▲	3.88▲
11:12 +15’	1.83▼	3.61▲	4.05▲
02:02 +54’	1.85▲	3.54▼	4.06▲
08:01 +64’	1.84▼	3.58▲	4.06
22:15 +48’	1.85▲	3.63▲	4.14▲
08:04 +98’	1.85▲	3.65▲	4.17▲
12:04 +138’	1.85▼	3.64▼	4.21▲
18:02 +48’	1.85	3.63▼	4.23▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Istra 1961 1–1–4 HNK Gorica

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/04/26 Croatia HNL	HNK Gorica	1-0 HT 1-0	Istra 1961
21/02/26 Croatia HNL	Istra 1961	0-2 HT 0-1	HNK Gorica
23/11/25 Croatia HNL	HNK Gorica	1-0 HT 1-0	Istra 1961
29/08/25 Croatia HNL	Istra 1961	1-0 HT 0-0	HNK Gorica
12/04/25 Croatia HNL	HNK Gorica	3-2 HT 2-2	Istra 1961
31/01/25 Croatia HNL	Istra 1961	0-0 HT 0-0	HNK Gorica

Standings · Croatia HNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hajduk Split	7	5	1	1	16	5	16
2	NK Osijek	8	5	1	2	17	11	16
3	NK Varazdin	8	4	3	1	13	7	15
4	Dinamo Zagreb	6	4	1	1	14	7	13
5	HNK Rijeka	6	3	2	1	10	7	11
6	Istra 1961	8	2	3	3	14	13	9
7	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	7	2	1	4	9	13	7
8	Slaven Belupo	8	2	1	5	7	16	7
9	HNK Gorica	8	1	2	5	5	12	5
10	NK Rudes	8	1	1	6	10	24	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Istra 1961	HNK Gorica
NK Varazdin	0-0 D	2-2 D
Dinamo Zagreb	2-2 D	0-1 L
HNK Rijeka	2-3 L	0-0 D
Slaven Belupo	3-0 W	0-2 L
Hajduk Split	2-2 D	1-2 L
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	2-3 L	1-3 L
NK Osijek	1-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Istra 1961 (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Istra 1961

WDLLDWLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	NK Rudes Croatia HNL	2-0	3-2	2	3	W
04/09	NK Varazdin Croatia HNL	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
29/08	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	2-1	2-2	4	4	D
23/08	HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL	0-2	2-3	4	1	L
15/08	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	2-0	3-0	5	5	W
09/08	Hajduk Split Croatia HNL	1-1	2-2	5	4	D
01/08	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Croatia HNL	1-2	2-3	7	4	L
23/05	NK Varazdin Croatia HNL	0-2	0-2	3	5	L
17/05	HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
10/05	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	1-0	1-0	4	8	W

HNK Gorica

LWLLLLLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/09	NK Varazdin Croatia HNL	0-0	2-2	1	3	D
05/09	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
31/08	HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
22/08	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	0-2	0-2	4	3	L
16/08	Hajduk Split Croatia HNL	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
08/08	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Croatia HNL	0-2	1-3	3	8	L
01/08	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	0-2	0-2	3	3	L
23/05	HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL	0-0	0-2	3	3	L
16/05	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	2-0	2-0	4	4	W
10/05	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	0-0	0-1	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Istra 1961 win (51%). Probabilities: Istra 1961 51%, draw 26%, HNK Gorica 23%.

How many goals are expected in Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica?

The model expects 2.67 goals (Istra 1961 1.64 · HNK Gorica 1.02), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.