Football · Croatia HNL · 14/09, 18:00

Prediction: HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin

Team pages: HNK Gorica · NK Varazdin

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.43Total

HNK Gorica1.05

NK Varazdin1.38

1X2

28% 29% 44%

HNK Gorica Draw NK Varazdin

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

HNK Gorica 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLLLDL

NK Varazdin 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWWWWLWD

Head-to-head

HNK Gorica 1–4–1 NK Varazdin (6 last)

NK Varazdin1-1HNK Gorica
NK Varazdin1-3HNK Gorica
HNK Gorica1-3NK Varazdin
NK Varazdin1-1HNK Gorica
NK Varazdin0-0HNK Gorica
HNK Gorica1-1NK Varazdin

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HNK Gorica 1411 · NK Varazdin 1573

	HNK Gorica	Draw	NK Varazdin
Our model	27%	30%	43%
Market	28%	28%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Varazdin (rating 1411 vs 1573).
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HNK Gorica	NK Varazdin
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 1.5	1.7 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	1.1 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 3.4	2.3 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.20

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:43

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	3.13 → 3.12▼	Pinn 3.12
X	3.40 → 3.42▲	Pinn 3.42
2	2.21 → 2.20▼	Pinn 2.20

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
22:55 +291’	3.13	3.40	2.21
09:37 +6’	3.12▼	3.42▲	2.20▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HNK Gorica 1–4–1 NK Varazdin

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 Croatia HNL	NK Varazdin	1-1 HT 1-1	HNK Gorica
04/03/26 Croatia Cup	NK Varazdin	1-3 HT 1-2	HNK Gorica
19/10/25 Croatia HNL	HNK Gorica	1-3 HT 0-2	NK Varazdin
04/08/25 Croatia HNL	NK Varazdin	1-1 HT 0-1	HNK Gorica
04/04/25 Croatia HNL	NK Varazdin	0-0 HT 0-0	HNK Gorica
25/01/25 Croatia HNL	HNK Gorica	1-1 HT 1-1	NK Varazdin

Standings · Croatia HNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hajduk Split	7	5	1	1	16	5	16
2	NK Osijek	7	5	0	2	17	11	15
3	Dinamo Zagreb	6	4	1	1	14	7	13
4	NK Varazdin	6	4	1	1	11	5	13
5	HNK Rijeka	6	3	2	1	10	7	11
6	Istra 1961	7	2	3	2	14	12	9
7	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	7	2	1	4	9	13	7
8	Slaven Belupo	7	2	0	5	5	14	6
9	NK Rudes	7	1	0	6	8	22	3
10	HNK Gorica	6	0	1	5	2	10	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HNK Gorica	NK Varazdin
Dinamo Zagreb	0-1 L	1-3 L
HNK Rijeka	0-0 D	2-0 W
Slaven Belupo	0-2 L	4-1 W
Hajduk Split	1-2 L	2-1 W
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	1-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: NK Varazdin (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HNK Gorica

LLWLLLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
31/08	HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
22/08	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	0-2	0-2	4	3	L
16/08	Hajduk Split Croatia HNL	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
08/08	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Croatia HNL	0-2	1-3	3	8	L
01/08	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	0-2	0-2	3	3	L
23/05	HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL	0-0	0-2	3	3	L
16/05	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	2-0	2-0	4	4	W
10/05	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
02/05	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	1-1	1-2	8	2	L

NK Varazdin

LDWWWWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Istra 1961 Croatia HNL	0-0	0-0	8	6	D
29/08	NK Rudes Croatia HNL	0-0	2-0	9	3	W
22/08	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	1-0	1-3	2	4	L
16/08	HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL	2-0	2-0	2	3	W
09/08	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	3-0	4-1	5	2	W
02/08	Hajduk Split Croatia HNL	0-0	2-1	1	4	W
23/05	Istra 1961 Croatia HNL	2-0	2-0	2	5	W
15/05	Vukovar 91 Croatia HNL	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
09/05	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Croatia HNL	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
03/05	Hajduk Split Croatia HNL	1-2	1-3	3	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NK Varazdin win (44%). Probabilities: HNK Gorica 28%, draw 29%, NK Varazdin 44%.

How many goals are expected in HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin?

The model expects 2.43 goals (HNK Gorica 1.05 · NK Varazdin 1.38), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.