Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 11/10, 01:15

Prediction: Motagua vs Atletico Choloma

Team pages: Motagua · Atletico Choloma

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

Motagua2.49

Atletico Choloma0.64

1X2

78% 15% 8%

Motagua Draw Atletico Choloma

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Motagua 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDWLLWWDWL

Atletico Choloma 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLLWLDLW

Head-to-head

Motagua 4–0 Atletico Choloma (4 last)

Motagua5-1Atletico Choloma
Atletico Choloma1-3Motagua
Motagua2-1Atletico Choloma
Atletico Choloma0-3Motagua

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Motagua 1557 · Atletico Choloma 1452

	Motagua	Draw	Atletico Choloma
Our model	77%	16%	7%
Market	78%	14%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 3.13 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Motagua (rating 1557 vs 1452).
H2H favours Motagua: 4-0-0.
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Motagua	Atletico Choloma
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.9	0.8 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0.4 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/80/10%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6.9	2.7 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.14

X6.50

211.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.25)1.90

2 (+2.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.752.00

Under 3.751.80

Diff.: 1.65 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 05:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.14▼	Pinn 1.20 ★
X	4.50 → 6.50▲	Bet365 6.50
2	7.00 → 11.00▲	Bet365 11.00

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 13.1%

Time*	1	X	2
22:12 +9’	1.33	4.50	7.00
11:50 +30’	1.38▲	4.50	6.00▼
01:39 +22’	1.22▼	5.50▲	8.50▲
05:14 +7’	1.14▼	6.50▲	11.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:40 +85’	1.20	5.59	8.37

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Motagua 4–0–0 Atletico Choloma

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/04/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Motagua	5-1 HT 3-1	Atletico Choloma
08/03/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Atletico Choloma	1-3 HT 1-1	Motagua
10/11/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Motagua	2-1 HT 2-0	Atletico Choloma
11/09/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Atletico Choloma	0-3 HT 0-1	Motagua

Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Espana	8	5	3	0	13	4	18
2	CD Olimpia	8	5	2	1	19	7	17
3	CD Marathon	8	5	2	1	14	6	17
4	Motagua	8	4	1	3	11	8	13
5	Genesis de Comayagua	8	3	2	3	10	6	11
6	Olancho FC	8	2	5	1	6	5	11
7	Estrella Roja	8	2	3	3	13	16	9
8	CA Independiente Siguatepeque	8	2	3	3	7	11	9
9	Lobos UPNFM	8	2	2	4	7	12	8
10	Atletico Choloma	8	2	1	5	6	8	7
11	Juticalpa	8	2	0	6	8	19	6
12	CD Platense	8	1	2	5	6	18	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Motagua	Atletico Choloma
Real Espana	0-1 L	1-2 L
Genesis de Comayagua	1-0 W	0-2 L
CA Independiente Siguatepeque	0-0 D	1-2 L
Olancho FC	2-1 W	0-0 D
Lobos UPNFM	4-1 W	0-1 L
Estrella Roja	0-2 L	2-0 W
CD Marathon	0-0 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Motagua (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Motagua

DDWLLWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
13/09	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
06/09	CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
30/08	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	2-1	9	3	W
22/08	Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional	3-0	4-1	5	4	W
17/08	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	1-3	5	8	L
10/08	Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-2	9	4	L
02/08	Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	3-0	7	2	W
25/05	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-0	13	6	D
22/05	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	2	4	D

Atletico Choloma

LWLLLWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	2-0	1	9	W
13/09	Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional	0-2	0-1	4	7	L
05/09	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
31/08	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	0-2	1-2	5	6	L
23/08	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	2-0	2-0	9	9	W
16/08	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	12	8	L
10/08	CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional	1-2	1-2	2	7	L
01/08	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-2	0-2	5	2	L
01/05	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
27/04	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-3	1-5	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Motagua vs Atletico Choloma?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Motagua win (78%). Probabilities: Motagua 78%, draw 15%, Atletico Choloma 8%.

How many goals are expected in Motagua vs Atletico Choloma?

The model expects 3.13 goals (Motagua 2.49 · Atletico Choloma 0.64), with a 60% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Motagua vs Atletico Choloma?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.