Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 18/10, 01:15

Prediction: Juticalpa vs Atletico Choloma

Team pages: Juticalpa · Atletico Choloma

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

Juticalpa1.33

Atletico Choloma1.29

1X2

37% 28% 35%

Juticalpa Draw Atletico Choloma

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Juticalpa 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLLWLLWL

Atletico Choloma 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLWLDLWL

Head-to-head

Juticalpa 2–2–0 Atletico Choloma (4 last)

Atletico Choloma1-1Juticalpa
Juticalpa1-0Atletico Choloma
Atletico Choloma2-2Juticalpa
Juticalpa3-2Atletico Choloma

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Juticalpa 1448 · Atletico Choloma 1461

	Juticalpa	Draw	Atletico Choloma
Our model	36%	29%	35%
Market	38%	26%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Juticalpa: 2-2-0.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Juticalpa	Atletico Choloma
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.1	0.8 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/80/10%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.9	2.3 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.5	6.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.40

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
21:08 +8’	2.40	3.40	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Juticalpa 2–2–0 Atletico Choloma

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Atletico Choloma	1-1 HT 1-1	Juticalpa
25/01/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Juticalpa	1-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Choloma
26/10/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Atletico Choloma	2-2 HT 2-1	Juticalpa
17/08/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Juticalpa	3-2 HT 2-2	Atletico Choloma

Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Espana	9	6	3	0	14	4	21
2	CD Marathon	10	6	3	1	16	7	21
3	CD Olimpia	9	6	2	1	20	7	20
4	Motagua	9	5	1	3	13	9	16
5	Olancho FC	10	2	6	2	8	8	12
6	Genesis de Comayagua	9	3	2	4	10	7	11
7	CA Independiente Siguatepeque	9	2	4	3	8	12	10
8	Estrella Roja	9	2	3	4	13	17	9
9	Lobos UPNFM	9	2	3	4	7	12	9
10	CD Platense	9	2	2	5	8	19	8
11	Atletico Choloma	9	2	1	6	7	10	7
12	Juticalpa	9	2	0	7	9	21	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Juticalpa	Atletico Choloma
CD Platense	1-2 L	2-0 W
CD Marathon	3-2 W	0-1 L
CA Independiente Siguatepeque	1-2 L	1-2 L
Genesis de Comayagua	0-3 L	0-2 L
Lobos UPNFM	1-0 W	0-1 L
Estrella Roja	2-5 L	2-0 W
Olancho FC	0-1 L	0-0 D
Motagua	0-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 6 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Choloma (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Juticalpa

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	1-2	9	6	L
21/09	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	2-2	3-2	4	9	W
14/09	CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	1-2	6	4	L
07/09	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-3	6	2	L
29/08	Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
23/08	Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	2-5	–	–	L
17/08	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
09/08	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	0-2	1-3	14	5	L
02/08	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-3	0	2	L
27/04	Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	–	–	W

Atletico Choloma

WLLLWLDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-2	1-2	6	9	L
19/09	Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	2-0	1	9	W
13/09	Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional	0-2	0-1	4	7	L
05/09	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
31/08	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	0-2	1-2	5	6	L
23/08	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	2-0	2-0	9	9	W
16/08	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	12	8	L
10/08	CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional	1-2	1-2	2	7	L
01/08	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-2	0-2	5	2	L
01/05	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Juticalpa vs Atletico Choloma?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Juticalpa win (37%). Probabilities: Juticalpa 37%, draw 28%, Atletico Choloma 35%.

How many goals are expected in Juticalpa vs Atletico Choloma?

The model expects 2.62 goals (Juticalpa 1.33 · Atletico Choloma 1.29), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Juticalpa vs Atletico Choloma?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.