Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 16/10, 01:15
Prediction: CD Marathon vs Olancho FC
Team pages: CD Marathon · Olancho FC
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Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.35Total
CD Marathon1.5
Olancho FC0.85
1X2
CD Marathon
Draw
Olancho FC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
CD Marathon
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Olancho FC
2-7-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CD Marathon
3–2–1
Olancho FC
(6 last)
- CD Marathon0-2Olancho FC
- Olancho FC1-1CD Marathon
- CD Marathon2-1Olancho FC
- Olancho FC0-3CD Marathon
- CD Marathon2-1Olancho FC
- Olancho FC1-1CD Marathon
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CD Marathon 1547 · Olancho FC 1501
| CD Marathon | Draw | Olancho FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 29% | 20% |
| Market | 53% | 25% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Marathon (rating 1547 vs 1501).
- H2H favours CD Marathon: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CD Marathon | Olancho FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 30/70/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.7 | 2.1 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.6 | 4.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Marathon 3–2–1 Olancho FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 Honduras Liga Nacional | CD Marathon | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Olancho FC |
| 22/02/26 Honduras Liga Nacional | Olancho FC | 1-1 HT 1-1 | CD Marathon |
| 28/12/25 Honduras Liga Nacional | CD Marathon | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Olancho FC |
| 12/12/25 Honduras Liga Nacional | Olancho FC | 0-3 HT 0-1 | CD Marathon |
| 01/11/25 Honduras Liga Nacional | CD Marathon | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Olancho FC |
| 25/08/25 Honduras Liga Nacional | Olancho FC | 1-1 HT 1-0 | CD Marathon |
Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Espana | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 4 | 21 |
| 2 | CD Olimpia | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 7 | 20 |
| 3 | CD Marathon | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 18 |
| 4 | Motagua | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | Olancho FC | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Genesis de Comayagua | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 11 |
| 7 | CA Independiente Siguatepeque | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 10 |
| 8 | Estrella Roja | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 17 | 9 |
| 9 | Lobos UPNFM | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 9 |
| 10 | CD Platense | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 8 |
| 11 | Atletico Choloma | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 7 |
| 12 | Juticalpa | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 21 | 6 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | CD Marathon | Olancho FC |
|---|---|---|
| Lobos UPNFM | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Juticalpa | 2-3 L | 1-0 W |
| CD Olimpia | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Estrella Roja | 5-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Genesis de Comayagua | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Real Espana | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Atletico Choloma | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| CA Independiente Siguatepeque | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Motagua | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 3 D 1 L | 2 W 6 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: CD Marathon (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CD Marathon
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 21/09 | Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional |
2-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 9 | L |
| 14/09 | CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 14 | W |
| 06/09 | Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional |
3-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 29/08 | Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 23/08 | Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 16/08 | Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 08/08 | CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 12 | 4 | D |
| 04/08 | CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/05 | Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
Olancho FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 19/09 | Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 13/09 | Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 10 | D |
| 05/09 | Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 30/08 | Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 24/08 | CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 17/08 | Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 09/08 | Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 03/08 | Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 15/05 | Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CD Marathon vs Olancho FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Marathon win (52%). Probabilities: CD Marathon 52%, draw 26%, Olancho FC 21%.
How many goals are expected in CD Marathon vs Olancho FC?
The model expects 2.35 goals (CD Marathon 1.5 · Olancho FC 0.85), with a 58% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in CD Marathon vs Olancho FC?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.