Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 11/10, 03:30

Prediction: Lobos UPNFM vs CD Marathon

Team pages: Lobos UPNFM · CD Marathon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.13Total

Lobos UPNFM0.93

CD Marathon1.2

1X2

28% 30% 42%

Lobos UPNFM Draw CD Marathon

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Lobos UPNFM 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLDDLLLWW

CD Marathon 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DDWDWDWWWL

Head-to-head

Lobos UPNFM 0–4–2 CD Marathon (6 last)

CD Marathon2-0Lobos UPNFM
Lobos UPNFM1-1CD Marathon
CD Marathon2-0Lobos UPNFM
Lobos UPNFM2-2CD Marathon
Lobos UPNFM0-0CD Marathon
CD Marathon3-3Lobos UPNFM

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lobos UPNFM 1467 · CD Marathon 1542

	Lobos UPNFM	Draw	CD Marathon
Our model	27%	32%	41%
Market	29%	28%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.13 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Marathon (rating 1467 vs 1542).
H2H favours CD Marathon: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lobos UPNFM	CD Marathon
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.4	1.5 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.1	2.1 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0	5.1 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.25

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.10▼	Bet365 3.10
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.05 → 2.10▲	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
22:04 +24’	3.20	3.25	2.05
01:55 +9’	3.10▼	3.25	2.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lobos UPNFM 0–4–2 CD Marathon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Marathon	2-0 HT 0-0	Lobos UPNFM
26/01/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Lobos UPNFM	1-1 HT 0-0	CD Marathon
04/12/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Marathon	2-0 HT 1-0	Lobos UPNFM
19/09/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Lobos UPNFM	2-2 HT 1-1	CD Marathon
04/05/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Lobos UPNFM	0-0 HT 0-0	CD Marathon
01/03/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Marathon	3-3 HT 2-1	Lobos UPNFM

Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Espana	8	5	3	0	13	4	18
2	CD Olimpia	8	5	2	1	19	7	17
3	CD Marathon	8	5	2	1	14	6	17
4	Motagua	8	4	1	3	11	8	13
5	Genesis de Comayagua	8	3	2	3	10	6	11
6	Olancho FC	8	2	5	1	6	5	11
7	Estrella Roja	8	2	3	3	13	16	9
8	CA Independiente Siguatepeque	8	2	3	3	7	11	9
9	Lobos UPNFM	8	2	2	4	7	12	8
10	Atletico Choloma	8	2	1	5	6	8	7
11	Juticalpa	8	2	0	6	8	19	6
12	CD Platense	8	1	2	5	6	18	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lobos UPNFM	CD Marathon
CD Platense	2-0 W	1-1 D
Atletico Choloma	1-0 W	1-0 W
Real Espana	0-2 L	1-1 D
Juticalpa	0-1 L	2-3 L
Motagua	1-4 L	0-0 D
Estrella Roja	2-2 D	5-0 W
CD Olimpia	0-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CD Marathon (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lobos UPNFM

LWLDDLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	2-0	2-0	5	4	W
13/09	Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional	2-0	1-0	3	7	W
07/09	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	0-2	0-2	4	5	L
29/08	Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
22/08	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-3	1-4	7	4	L
16/08	Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	2-2	3	3	D
09/08	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
03/08	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	0-2	0-2	1	2	L
01/05	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
27/04	Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	–	–	L

CD Marathon

DDWDWDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional	2-2	2-3	3	9	L
14/09	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	8	14	W
06/09	Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional	3-0	5-0	5	1	W
29/08	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	2-1	3	1	W
23/08	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
16/08	Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	4	8	W
08/08	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	1-1	12	4	D
04/08	CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
25/05	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
22/05	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	6	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lobos UPNFM vs CD Marathon?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CD Marathon win (42%). Probabilities: Lobos UPNFM 28%, draw 30%, CD Marathon 42%.

How many goals are expected in Lobos UPNFM vs CD Marathon?

The model expects 2.13 goals (Lobos UPNFM 0.93 · CD Marathon 1.2), with a 58% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Lobos UPNFM vs CD Marathon?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.