Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 16/10, 03:30

Prediction: CD Olimpia vs Real Espana

Team pages: CD Olimpia · Real Espana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

CD Olimpia1.58

Real Espana1.09

1X2

48% 27% 25%

CD Olimpia Draw Real Espana

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Olimpia 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWDDWLWW

Real Espana 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

DWWDDWWDWW

Head-to-head

CD Olimpia 3–1–2 Real Espana (6 last)

CD Olimpia3-2Real Espana
Real Espana3-1CD Olimpia
Real Espana3-2CD Olimpia
CD Olimpia1-1Real Espana
CD Olimpia1-0Real Espana
Real Espana0-1CD Olimpia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Olimpia 1614 · Real Espana 1562

	CD Olimpia	Draw	Real Espana
Our model	48%	27%	25%
Market	48%	27%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Olimpia (rating 1614 vs 1562).
H2H favours CD Olimpia: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Olimpia	Real Espana
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.8	1.5 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 5.1	2.4 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.4	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.30

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:31 +37’	1.85	3.30	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Olimpia 3–1–2 Real Espana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/05/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Olimpia	3-2 HT 1-0	Real Espana
10/05/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Real Espana	3-1 HT 0-1	CD Olimpia
26/04/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Real Espana	3-2 HT 2-2	CD Olimpia
09/03/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Olimpia	1-1 HT 0-0	Real Espana
28/12/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Olimpia	1-0 HT 0-0	Real Espana
11/12/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Real Espana	0-1 HT 0-1	CD Olimpia

Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Espana	9	6	3	0	14	4	21
2	CD Olimpia	9	6	2	1	20	7	20
3	CD Marathon	9	5	3	1	14	6	18
4	Motagua	9	5	1	3	13	9	16
5	Olancho FC	9	2	6	1	7	6	12
6	Genesis de Comayagua	9	3	2	4	10	7	11
7	CA Independiente Siguatepeque	9	2	4	3	8	12	10
8	Estrella Roja	9	2	3	4	13	17	9
9	Lobos UPNFM	9	2	3	4	7	12	9
10	CD Platense	9	2	2	5	8	19	8
11	Atletico Choloma	9	2	1	6	7	10	7
12	Juticalpa	9	2	0	7	9	21	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Olimpia	Real Espana
Genesis de Comayagua	1-0 W	2-0 W
CA Independiente Siguatepeque	4-0 W	1-1 D
CD Marathon	0-1 L	1-1 D
CD Platense	4-1 W	3-0 W
Estrella Roja	2-2 D	1-0 W
Olancho FC	1-1 D	1-1 D
Motagua	3-1 W	1-0 W
Lobos UPNFM	2-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 1 L	5 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Real Espana (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Olimpia

LWWWDDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
21/09	CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional	3-0	4-0	2	4	W
14/09	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	6	14	L
04/09	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	2-1	4-1	6	4	W
30/08	Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	2-2	5	9	D
24/08	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
17/08	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	3-1	7	8	W
09/08	Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional	2-0	3-1	3	5	W
03/08	Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional	2-0	2-0	3	2	W
16/05	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	0-1	11	2	L

Real Espana

DWWDDWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
20/09	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
13/09	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	0	10	D
07/09	Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional	2-0	2-0	3	5	W
31/08	Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional	2-0	2-1	3	6	W
23/08	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	1-1	1	4	D
16/08	CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	9	6	D
09/08	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
01/08	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	2-0	3-0	5	0	W
19/05	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	1-1	8	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Olimpia vs Real Espana?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Olimpia win (48%). Probabilities: CD Olimpia 48%, draw 27%, Real Espana 25%.

How many goals are expected in CD Olimpia vs Real Espana?

The model expects 2.67 goals (CD Olimpia 1.58 · Real Espana 1.09), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Olimpia vs Real Espana?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.