Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 10/10, 23:00

Prediction: Genesis de Comayagua vs CD Olimpia

Team pages: Genesis de Comayagua · CD Olimpia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.68Total

Genesis de Comayagua1.08

CD Olimpia1.6

1X2

25% 27% 48%

Genesis de Comayagua Draw CD Olimpia

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Genesis de Comayagua 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLWDLWLD

CD Olimpia 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWWDDWLW

Head-to-head

Genesis de Comayagua 1–3 CD Olimpia (4 last)

Genesis de Comayagua0-2CD Olimpia
CD Olimpia1-0Genesis de Comayagua
Genesis de Comayagua6-2CD Olimpia
CD Olimpia3-2Genesis de Comayagua

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Genesis de Comayagua 1487 · CD Olimpia 1613

	Genesis de Comayagua	Draw	CD Olimpia
Our model	25%	27%	48%
Market	25%	26%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Olimpia (rating 1487 vs 1613).
H2H favours CD Olimpia: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Genesis de Comayagua	CD Olimpia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.9	2.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	1.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 4.9	1.7 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	4.9 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.40

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 09:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 3.60▼	Bet365 3.60
X	3.60 → 3.40▼	Bet365 3.40
2	1.67 → 1.85▲	Bet365 1.85

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:13 +6’	4.33	3.60	1.67
12:13 +2’	3.90▼	3.50▼	1.75▲
09:14 +15’	3.60▼	3.40▼	1.85▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Genesis de Comayagua 1–0–3 CD Olimpia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Genesis de Comayagua	0-2 HT 0-1	CD Olimpia
26/01/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Olimpia	1-0 HT 1-0	Genesis de Comayagua
09/11/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Genesis de Comayagua	6-2 HT 2-1	CD Olimpia
13/09/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Olimpia	3-2 HT 0-1	Genesis de Comayagua

Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Espana	8	5	3	0	13	4	18
2	CD Olimpia	8	5	2	1	19	7	17
3	CD Marathon	8	5	2	1	14	6	17
4	Motagua	8	4	1	3	11	8	13
5	Genesis de Comayagua	8	3	2	3	10	6	11
6	Olancho FC	8	2	5	1	6	5	11
7	Estrella Roja	8	2	3	3	13	16	9
8	CA Independiente Siguatepeque	8	2	3	3	7	11	9
9	Lobos UPNFM	8	2	2	4	7	12	8
10	Atletico Choloma	8	2	1	5	6	8	7
11	Juticalpa	8	2	0	6	8	19	6
12	CD Platense	8	1	2	5	6	18	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Genesis de Comayagua	CD Olimpia
Olancho FC	0-0 D	1-1 D
Motagua	0-1 L	3-1 W
Juticalpa	3-0 W	3-1 W
CD Marathon	1-2 L	0-1 L
CA Independiente Siguatepeque	1-1 D	4-0 W
CD Platense	3-0 W	4-1 W
Real Espana	0-2 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CD Olimpia (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Genesis de Comayagua

DLWLWDLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
13/09	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
07/09	Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	3-0	2	2	W
29/08	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-2	4	1	L
22/08	CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	10	4	D
15/08	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	2-0	3-0	8	4	W
09/08	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	0-2	1	4	L
01/08	Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional	2-0	2-0	2	2	W
19/05	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
15/05	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	1-1	3	4	D

CD Olimpia

WLWWWDDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional	3-0	4-0	2	4	W
14/09	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	6	14	L
04/09	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	2-1	4-1	6	4	W
30/08	Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	2-2	5	9	D
24/08	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
17/08	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	3-1	7	8	W
09/08	Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional	2-0	3-1	3	5	W
03/08	Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional	2-0	2-0	3	2	W
16/05	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	0-1	11	2	L
13/05	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	3-2	7	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Genesis de Comayagua vs CD Olimpia?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CD Olimpia win (48%). Probabilities: Genesis de Comayagua 25%, draw 27%, CD Olimpia 48%.

How many goals are expected in Genesis de Comayagua vs CD Olimpia?

The model expects 2.68 goals (Genesis de Comayagua 1.08 · CD Olimpia 1.6), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Genesis de Comayagua vs CD Olimpia?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.