Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 24/10, 03:00
Prediction: Olancho FC vs Estrella Roja
Team pages: Olancho FC · Estrella Roja
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.59Total
Olancho FC1.73
Estrella Roja0.86
1X2
Olancho FC
Draw
Estrella Roja
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Olancho FC
2-6-2 (W-D-L)
Estrella Roja
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Olancho FC
5–1–0
Estrella Roja
(6 last)
- Estrella Roja0-1Olancho FC
- Estrella Roja0-0Olancho FC
- Olancho FC3-0Estrella Roja
- Estrella Roja1-2Olancho FC
- Olancho FC2-1Estrella Roja
- Estrella Roja2-3Olancho FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Olancho FC 1500 · Estrella Roja 1487
| Olancho FC | Draw | Estrella Roja | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 26% | 17% |
| Market | 58% | 24% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Olancho FC: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Olancho FC | Estrella Roja | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 0.8 | 1.5 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.2 | 0.3 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4 | 3.4 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.2 | 6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Olancho FC 5–1–0 Estrella Roja
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/26 Honduras Liga Nacional | Estrella Roja | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Olancho FC |
| 01/04/22 Honduras Liga de Ascenso | Estrella Roja | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Olancho FC |
| 04/03/22 Honduras Liga de Ascenso | Olancho FC | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Estrella Roja |
| 02/10/21 Honduras Liga Nacional | Estrella Roja | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Olancho FC |
| 04/09/21 Honduras Liga de Ascenso | Olancho FC | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Estrella Roja |
| 19/03/21 Honduras Liga de Ascenso | Estrella Roja | 2-3 HT 2-1 | Olancho FC |
Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Olimpia | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 8 | 23 |
| 2 | CD Marathon | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 21 |
| 3 | Real Espana | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 21 |
| 4 | Motagua | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 9 | 19 |
| 5 | Olancho FC | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 12 |
| 6 | Lobos UPNFM | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 12 |
| 7 | Estrella Roja | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 18 | 12 |
| 8 | Genesis de Comayagua | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 11 |
| 9 | Atletico Choloma | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 10 |
| 10 | CA Independiente Siguatepeque | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 10 |
| 11 | CD Platense | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 8 |
| 12 | Juticalpa | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 10 | 23 | 6 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Olancho FC | Estrella Roja |
|---|---|---|
| CD Marathon | 1-2 L | 0-5 L |
| Genesis de Comayagua | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Real Espana | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Atletico Choloma | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Motagua | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| CD Olimpia | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Juticalpa | 1-0 W | 5-2 W |
| Lobos UPNFM | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 5 D 2 L | 3 W 2 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Olancho FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10 | CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 12/10 | CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 19/09 | Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 13/09 | Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 10 | D |
| 05/09 | Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 30/08 | Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 24/08 | CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 17/08 | Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 09/08 | Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 03/08 | Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
Estrella Roja
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
2-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 13 | W |
| 11/10 | Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 19/09 | Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 9 | L |
| 12/09 | CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 2-2 | 14 | 7 | D |
| 06/09 | CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-3 | 0-5 | 10 | 1 | L |
| 30/08 | CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 23/08 | Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 5-2 | – | – | W |
| 16/08 | Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 10/08 | Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 03/08 | Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Olancho FC vs Estrella Roja?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Olancho FC win (57%). Probabilities: Olancho FC 57%, draw 25%, Estrella Roja 18%.
How many goals are expected in Olancho FC vs Estrella Roja?
The model expects 2.59 goals (Olancho FC 1.73 · Estrella Roja 0.86), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Olancho FC vs Estrella Roja?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.