Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 25/10, 02:30

Prediction: CA Independiente Siguatepeque vs CD Marathon

Team pages: CA Independiente Siguatepeque · CD Marathon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.51Total

CA Independiente Siguatepeque0.93

CD Marathon1.59

1X2

21% 26% 52%

CA Independiente Siguatepeque Draw CD Marathon

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

CA Independiente Siguatepeque 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LWDDLDWLDL

CD Marathon 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWDWWWLDW

Head-to-head

CA Independiente Siguatepeque 0–1 CD Marathon (1 last)

CD Marathon1-0CA Independiente Siguatepeque

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Independiente Siguatepeque 1465 · CD Marathon 1562

	CA Independiente Siguatepeque	Draw	CD Marathon
Our model	21%	28%	52%
Market	22%	26%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Marathon (rating 1465 vs 1562).
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Independiente Siguatepeque	CD Marathon
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.6	1.6 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.2	2.3 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	4.7 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

14.10

X3.50

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.82

2 (-0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 12:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.10▼	Pinn 5.16 ★
X	3.60 → 3.50▼	Pinn 3.54
2	1.61 → 1.70▲	Bet365 1.70

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
21:15 +26’	4.50	3.60	1.61
12:20 +6’	4.10▼	3.50▼	1.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:44 +82’	5.16	3.54	1.54

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Independiente Siguatepeque 0–0–1 CD Marathon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/08/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Marathon	1-0 HT 1-0	CA Independiente Siguatepeque

Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Olimpia	10	7	2	1	22	8	23
2	CD Marathon	10	6	3	1	16	7	21
3	Real Espana	10	6	3	1	15	6	21
4	Motagua	10	6	1	3	15	9	19
5	Olancho FC	11	2	7	2	11	11	13
6	Estrella Roja	11	3	4	4	18	21	13
7	Lobos UPNFM	10	3	3	4	11	12	12
8	Genesis de Comayagua	10	3	2	5	11	9	11
9	Atletico Choloma	10	3	1	6	9	11	10
10	CA Independiente Siguatepeque	10	2	4	4	8	16	10
11	CD Platense	10	2	2	6	8	21	8
12	Juticalpa	10	2	0	8	10	23	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA Independiente Siguatepeque	CD Marathon
Lobos UPNFM	0-4 L	0-0 D
Olancho FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
CD Olimpia	0-4 L	1-0 W
Juticalpa	2-1 W	2-3 L
CD Platense	1-2 L	1-1 D
Genesis de Comayagua	1-1 D	2-1 W
Real Espana	1-1 D	1-1 D
Atletico Choloma	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 3 L	4 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CD Marathon (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Independiente Siguatepeque

LWDDLDWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional	0-2	0-4	7	4	L
12/10	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
21/09	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	0-3	0-4	3	4	L
14/09	Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	2-1	3	4	W
06/09	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
30/08	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
22/08	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
16/08	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
10/08	Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional	2-1	2-1	2	7	W
04/08	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	0-1	–	–	L

CD Marathon

WDWDWWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	2-0	2-1	3	5	W
11/10	Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-0	8	1	D
21/09	Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional	2-2	2-3	3	9	L
14/09	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	8	14	W
06/09	Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional	3-0	5-0	5	1	W
29/08	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	2-1	3	1	W
23/08	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
16/08	Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	4	8	W
08/08	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	1-1	12	4	D
04/08	CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Independiente Siguatepeque vs CD Marathon?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CD Marathon win (52%). Probabilities: CA Independiente Siguatepeque 21%, draw 26%, CD Marathon 52%.

How many goals are expected in CA Independiente Siguatepeque vs CD Marathon?

The model expects 2.51 goals (CA Independiente Siguatepeque 0.93 · CD Marathon 1.59), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Independiente Siguatepeque vs CD Marathon?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.