Football · Iceland 1 Deild · 09/09, 21:15

Prediction: HK Kopavogur vs Fylkir Reykjavik

Team pages: HK Kopavogur · Fylkir Reykjavik

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.28Total

HK Kopavogur2.06

Fylkir Reykjavik2.21

1X2

36% 23% 41%

HK Kopavogur Draw Fylkir Reykjavik

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-2 7%

Recent form · 10 last

HK Kopavogur 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLLWDWLW

Fylkir Reykjavik 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWLDLWWL

Head-to-head

HK Kopavogur 3–1–2 Fylkir Reykjavik (6 last)

HK Kopavogur2-1Fylkir Reykjavik
Fylkir Reykjavik0-2HK Kopavogur
HK Kopavogur0-2Fylkir Reykjavik
Fylkir Reykjavik1-2HK Kopavogur
HK Kopavogur2-2Fylkir Reykjavik
HK Kopavogur0-2Fylkir Reykjavik

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HK Kopavogur 1550 · Fylkir Reykjavik 1503

	HK Kopavogur	Draw	Fylkir Reykjavik
Our model	37%	21%	42%
Market	35%	24%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 4.28 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HK Kopavogur (rating 1550 vs 1503).
H2H favours HK Kopavogur: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HK Kopavogur	Fylkir Reykjavik
Goals for / against (FT)	3.1 / 2	2.6 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 0.9	1.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.9	2.4 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.75

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.88

Under 3.751.93

Diff.: 1.05 · xG: 4.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.55▲	Pinn 2.59
X	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 3.92 ★
2	2.38 → 2.20▼	Pinn 2.29

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:32 +5’	2.35	3.75	2.38
23:22 +2’	2.55▲	3.75	2.20▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:13 +47’	2.64	3.88	2.27
18:11 +29’	2.63▼	3.90▲	2.26▼
23:18 +7’	2.62▼	3.90	2.28▲
17:18 +54’	2.59▼	3.92▲	2.29▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 7 odds moves recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HK Kopavogur 3–1–2 Fylkir Reykjavik

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/09/26 Iceland 1 Deild	HK Kopavogur	2-1 HT 0-0	Fylkir Reykjavik
26/06/26 Iceland 1 Deild	Fylkir Reykjavik	0-2 HT 0-1	HK Kopavogur
29/08/25 Iceland 1 Deild	HK Kopavogur	0-2 HT 0-0	Fylkir Reykjavik
20/06/25 Iceland 1 Deild	Fylkir Reykjavik	1-2 HT 1-1	HK Kopavogur
06/10/24 Iceland Premier League	HK Kopavogur	2-2 HT 1-0	Fylkir Reykjavik
18/08/24 Iceland Premier League	HK Kopavogur	0-2 HT 0-0	Fylkir Reykjavik

Standings · Iceland 1 Deild

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Afturelding	22	14	3	5	65	33	45
2	Throttur Reykjavik	22	13	4	5	50	25	43
3	Fylkir Reykjavik	22	13	1	8	49	36	40
4	HK Kopavogur	22	12	2	8	52	40	38
5	Njardvik	22	12	2	8	38	29	38
6	Leiknir Reykjavik	22	8	4	10	34	33	28
7	IR Reykjavik	22	8	4	10	40	46	28
8	Grotta Seltjarnarnes	22	8	3	11	36	43	27
9	IF Vestri	22	8	3	11	30	43	27
10	Volsungur	22	7	5	10	32	44	26
11	Grindavik	22	5	10	7	25	35	25
12	KF Aegir	22	2	3	17	25	69	9

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HK Kopavogur	Fylkir Reykjavik
Grindavik	3-4 L	6-1 W
Throttur Reykjavik	3-0 W	1-3 L
Afturelding	2-2 D	3-3 D
Leiknir Reykjavik	2-1 W	0-3 L
Volsungur	2-3 L	3-1 W
Njardvik	2-3 L	4-1 W
IF Vestri	6-2 W	5-2 W
IR Reykjavik	5-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: HK Kopavogur (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HK Kopavogur

WWWLLWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Fylkir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	2-1	6	5	W
29/08	Grindavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-3	3-4	9	6	L
22/08	Throttur Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
17/08	Afturelding Iceland 1 Deild	1-1	2-2	4	5	D
13/08	Leiknir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	2-1	6	6	W
09/08	Volsungur Iceland 1 Deild	1-1	2-3	5	5	L
24/07	Njardvik Iceland 1 Deild	1-1	2-3	4	3	L
20/07	IF Vestri Iceland 1 Deild	4-0	6-2	9	1	W
14/07	IR Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	4-0	5-1	6	2	W
10/07	KF Aegir Iceland 1 Deild	4-3	4-3	5	3	W

Fylkir Reykjavik

WWLWLDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	HK Kopavogur Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	1-2	4	5	L
28/08	Grotta Seltjarnarnes Iceland 1 Deild	1-0	3-1	7	3	W
22/08	Grindavik Iceland 1 Deild	4-0	6-1	12	4	W
17/08	Throttur Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-2	1-3	6	7	L
13/08	Afturelding Iceland 1 Deild	1-1	3-3	4	4	D
07/08	Leiknir Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	0-3	2	1	L
29/07	Volsungur Iceland 1 Deild	0-0	3-1	2	5	W
25/07	IR Reykjavik Iceland 1 Deild	0-1	0-2	8	1	L
17/07	Njardvik Iceland 1 Deild	4-0	4-1	9	4	W
13/07	IF Vestri Iceland 1 Deild	5-0	5-2	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HK Kopavogur vs Fylkir Reykjavik?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Fylkir Reykjavik win (41%). Probabilities: HK Kopavogur 36%, draw 23%, Fylkir Reykjavik 41%.

How many goals are expected in HK Kopavogur vs Fylkir Reykjavik?

The model expects 4.28 goals (HK Kopavogur 2.06 · Fylkir Reykjavik 2.21), with a 54% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in HK Kopavogur vs Fylkir Reykjavik?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.