Football · Colombia Primera A · 05/10, 01:10

Prediction: Atletico Bucaramanga vs Junior

Team pages: Atletico Bucaramanga · Junior

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.69Total

Atletico Bucaramanga1.62

Junior1.08

1X2

48% 28% 24%

Atletico Bucaramanga Draw Junior

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Bucaramanga 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

WDDWDDWDWW

Junior 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLLDLDDLWW

Head-to-head

Atletico Bucaramanga 1–2–3 Junior (6 last)

Junior2-0Atletico Bucaramanga
Junior2-1Atletico Bucaramanga
Atletico Bucaramanga1-1Junior
Atletico Bucaramanga1-0Junior
Junior1-0Atletico Bucaramanga
Atletico Bucaramanga0-0Junior

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Bucaramanga 1562 · Junior 1496

	Atletico Bucaramanga	Draw	Junior
Our model	49%	27%	24%
Market	48%	28%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Bucaramanga (rating 1562 vs 1496).
H2H favours Junior: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Bucaramanga	Junior
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.9	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 2.3	2 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.4	5.5 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.25

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.8%

Time*	1	X	2
18:15 +1’	1.91	3.25	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Bucaramanga 1–2–3 Junior

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/03/26 Colombia Primera A	Junior	2-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Bucaramanga
19/08/25 Colombia Primera A	Junior	2-1 HT 0-0	Atletico Bucaramanga
01/03/25 Colombia Primera A	Atletico Bucaramanga	1-1 HT 1-1	Junior
19/07/24 Colombia Primera A	Atletico Bucaramanga	1-0 HT 0-0	Junior
26/05/24 Colombia Primera A	Junior	1-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Bucaramanga
12/05/24 Colombia Primera A	Atletico Bucaramanga	0-0 HT 0-0	Junior

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	America de Cali	11	7	3	1	22	6	24
2	Deportivo Cali	11	6	3	2	17	8	21
3	Millonarios	13	5	6	2	18	11	21
4	Atletico Bucaramanga	10	5	5	0	17	9	20
5	Independiente Medellin	11	6	2	3	19	15	20
6	Atletico Nacional Medellin	9	6	1	2	18	9	19
7	Independiente Santa Fe	11	5	4	2	18	12	19
8	Deportes Tolima	11	5	3	3	15	13	18
9	Llaneros	11	4	2	5	14	14	14
10	Once Caldas	11	3	3	5	14	15	12
11	Internacional de Bogota	12	2	6	4	13	17	12
12	Cucuta Deportivo	11	3	3	5	11	19	12
13	Aguilas Doradas	10	2	5	3	12	15	11
14	Boyaca Chico	10	3	2	5	10	18	11
15	Alianza	11	3	2	6	11	21	11
16	Junior	9	2	3	4	14	14	9
17	Fortaleza CEIF	11	1	6	4	13	18	9
18	Deportivo Pereira	10	1	5	4	7	13	8
19	Deportivo Pasto	11	2	2	7	9	18	8
20	Jaguares de Cordoba	10	1	4	5	11	18	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Bucaramanga	Junior
Once Caldas	3-1 W	1-1 D
Independiente Medellin	2-2 D	2-0 W
Deportes Tolima	0-0 D	1-2 L
Alianza	3-2 W	0-1 L
Millonarios	1-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Bucaramanga (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Bucaramanga

WDDWDDWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	2-0	3-1	1	5	W
20/09	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
18/09	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	2-1	2-2	1	6	D
13/09	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	2-1	3-1	2	3	W
31/08	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	2	8	D
22/08	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	1	7	D
09/08	Alianza Colombia Primera A	2-1	3-2	0	6	W
04/08	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	3	11	D
31/07	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	6	7	D
26/07	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	5	3	W

Junior

LLLDLDDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-0	2-0	2	4	W
20/09	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	2-0	4-1	1	5	W
13/09	Alianza Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	6	9	L
06/09	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	1-1	3-3	7	6	D
30/08	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
27/08	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-4	2	8	L
24/08	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	4	11	D
02/08	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
26/07	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-2	1-2	7	3	L
09/06	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	5	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Bucaramanga vs Junior?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Bucaramanga win (48%). Probabilities: Atletico Bucaramanga 48%, draw 28%, Junior 24%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Bucaramanga vs Junior?

The model expects 2.69 goals (Atletico Bucaramanga 1.62 · Junior 1.08), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Bucaramanga vs Junior?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.