Football · Colombia Primera A · 04/10, 03:15
Prediction: Independiente Medellin vs Independiente Santa Fe
Team pages: Independiente Medellin · Independiente Santa Fe
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.65Total
Independiente Medellin1.56
Independiente Santa Fe1.09
1X2
Independiente Medellin
Draw
Independiente Santa Fe
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Independiente Medellin
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Independiente Santa Fe
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Independiente Medellin
2–1–3
Independiente Santa Fe
(6 last)
- Independiente Santa Fe2-1Independiente Medellin
- Independiente Santa Fe0-3Independiente Medellin
- Independiente Medellin1-2Independiente Santa Fe
- Independiente Medellin1-2Independiente Santa Fe
- Independiente Santa Fe0-0Independiente Medellin
- Independiente Santa Fe1-2Independiente Medellin
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Independiente Medellin 1547 · Independiente Santa Fe 1510
| Independiente Medellin | Draw | Independiente Santa Fe | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Market | 46% | 29% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Independiente Santa Fe: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Independiente Medellin | Independiente Santa Fe | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.3 | 1.6 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.3 | 2.3 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.5 | 4.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Medellin 2–1–3 Independiente Santa Fe
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/03/26 Colombia Primera A | Independiente Santa Fe | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Independiente Medellin |
| 02/10/25 Colombia Cup | Independiente Santa Fe | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Independiente Medellin |
| 25/09/25 Colombia Cup | Independiente Medellin | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Independiente Santa Fe |
| 30/06/25 Colombia Primera A | Independiente Medellin | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Independiente Santa Fe |
| 25/06/25 Colombia Primera A | Independiente Santa Fe | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Independiente Medellin |
| 15/04/25 Colombia Primera A | Independiente Santa Fe | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Independiente Medellin |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 6 | 24 |
| 2 | Deportivo Cali | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 8 | 21 |
| 3 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 17 | 9 | 20 |
| 4 | Millonarios | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 9 | 20 |
| 5 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 9 | 19 |
| 6 | Independiente Medellin | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 19 |
| 7 | Deportes Tolima | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 18 |
| 8 | Independiente Santa Fe | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 11 | 16 |
| 9 | Llaneros | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| 10 | Once Caldas | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 15 | 12 |
| 11 | Internacional de Bogota | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 17 | 12 |
| 12 | Cucuta Deportivo | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 19 | 12 |
| 13 | Aguilas Doradas | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 15 | 11 |
| 14 | Boyaca Chico | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 11 |
| 15 | Alianza | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 11 |
| 16 | Junior | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 9 |
| 17 | Fortaleza CEIF | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 18 | 9 |
| 18 | Deportivo Pereira | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 8 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pasto | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 8 |
| 20 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 7 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Independiente Medellin | Independiente Santa Fe |
|---|---|---|
| Junior | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Boyaca Chico | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Deportes Tolima | 3-2 W | 1-0 W |
| Deportivo Cali | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Independiente Santa Fe (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Independiente Medellin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 23/09 | Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 18/09 | Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A |
1-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 13/09 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 04/09 | Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 30/08 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 23/08 | Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 05/08 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 02/08 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 25/07 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A |
2-2 | 3-2 | 4 | 7 | W |
Independiente Santa Fe
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 19/09 | Alianza Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 12/09 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 06/09 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 03/09 | Millonarios Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 3-2 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 30/08 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 23/08 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 08/08 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 03/08 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 26/07 | Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Independiente Medellin vs Independiente Santa Fe?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente Medellin win (47%). Probabilities: Independiente Medellin 47%, draw 28%, Independiente Santa Fe 25%.
How many goals are expected in Independiente Medellin vs Independiente Santa Fe?
The model expects 2.65 goals (Independiente Medellin 1.56 · Independiente Santa Fe 1.09), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Independiente Medellin vs Independiente Santa Fe?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.