Football · Paraguay Division Intermedia · 12/09, 15:00

Prediction: Resistencia FC vs 3 de Noviembre

Team pages: Resistencia FC · 3 de Noviembre

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.43Total

Resistencia FC1.34

3 de Noviembre1.09

1X2

42% 29% 30%

Resistencia FC Draw 3 de Noviembre

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Resistencia FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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3 de Noviembre 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Resistencia FC 0–1–0 3 de Noviembre (1 last)

3 de Noviembre1-1Resistencia FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Resistencia FC 1499 · 3 de Noviembre 1480

	Resistencia FC	Draw	3 de Noviembre
Our model	41%	30%	29%
Market	42%	28%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Resistencia FC	3 de Noviembre
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.9	1.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.1	1.8 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.3	3.8 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.25

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.07 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
18:21 +10’	2.15	3.25	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:13 +205’	2.10	3.10	3.07

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Resistencia FC 0–1–0 3 de Noviembre

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Paraguay Division Intermedia	3 de Noviembre	1-1 HT 0-1	Resistencia FC

Standings · Paraguay Division Intermedia

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	General Caballero JLM	23	14	5	4	46	27	47
2	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes	23	13	6	4	33	21	45
3	Deportivo Santaní	23	13	3	7	39	24	42
4	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval	23	11	6	6	36	26	39
5	Sol de America	23	7	13	3	27	19	34
6	Resistencia FC	23	8	8	7	25	26	32
7	Independiente FBC	23	7	10	6	32	32	31
8	Carapegua	23	9	4	10	28	37	31
9	Club Atlético Tembetary	23	8	6	9	32	35	30
10	Paraguari AC	23	8	5	10	28	30	29
11	Fernando de la Mora	23	7	7	9	24	31	28
12	Deportivo Capiata	23	6	9	8	29	32	27
13	Guairena FC	23	6	6	11	21	29	24
14	Tacuary	23	3	11	9	25	37	20
15	Encarnacion FC	23	5	4	14	22	32	19
16	3 de Noviembre	23	4	7	12	27	36	19

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Resistencia FC	3 de Noviembre
Sol de America	0-0 D	1-0 W
Deportivo Capiata	1-0 W	3-4 L
Independiente FBC	1-1 D	5-2 W
Tacuary	3-1 W	1-0 W
Club Atlético Tembetary	1-0 W	3-0 W
Club Dr Benjamin Aceval	0-2 L	1-2 L
Carapegua	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: 3 de Noviembre (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Resistencia FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/09	General Caballero JLM Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-2	1-2	1	4	L
05/09	Guairena FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	2-1	5	10	W
31/08	Paraguari AC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
21/08	Sol de America Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
16/08	Deportivo Capiata Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	1-0	6	6	W
07/08	Independiente FBC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	1-1	1	5	D
01/08	Tacuary Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	3-1	3	6	W
28/07	Club Atlético Tembetary Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-0	1	8	W
18/07	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
10/07	Carapegua Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-1	3	6	D

3 de Noviembre

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	Sol de America Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
03/09	Deportivo Capiata Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	3-4	5	3	L
28/08	Independiente FBC Paraguay Division Intermedia	3-0	5-2	5	4	W
23/08	Tacuary Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
17/08	Club Atlético Tembetary Paraguay Division Intermedia	2-0	3-0	3	6	W
09/08	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	1-2	9	4	L
03/08	Carapegua Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
28/07	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
19/07	Encarnacion FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-2	4	4	L
11/07	Deportivo Santaní Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-2	0-4	1	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Resistencia FC vs 3 de Noviembre?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Resistencia FC win (42%). Probabilities: Resistencia FC 42%, draw 29%, 3 de Noviembre 30%.

How many goals are expected in Resistencia FC vs 3 de Noviembre?

The model expects 2.43 goals (Resistencia FC 1.34 · 3 de Noviembre 1.09), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Resistencia FC vs 3 de Noviembre?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.