Football · Paraguay Division Intermedia · 15/09, 00:00

Prediction: Independiente FBC vs Encarnacion FC

Team pages: Independiente FBC · Encarnacion FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

Independiente FBC1.49

Encarnacion FC1.17

1X2

43% 28% 29%

Independiente FBC Draw Encarnacion FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Independiente FBC 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DLDDDWDLDW

Encarnacion FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWDLLLWLWD

Head-to-head

Independiente FBC 3–1–1 Encarnacion FC (5 last)

Encarnacion FC2-3Independiente FBC
Encarnacion FC3-0Independiente FBC
Independiente FBC1-0Encarnacion FC
Encarnacion FC2-2Independiente FBC
Independiente FBC3-1Encarnacion FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Independiente FBC 1548 · Encarnacion FC 1469

	Independiente FBC	Draw	Encarnacion FC
Our model	43%	28%	29%
Market	43%	28%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente FBC (rating 1548 vs 1469).
H2H favours Independiente FBC: 3-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Independiente FBC	Encarnacion FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.5	0.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.8	2.6 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.20

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 12:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 2.05▲	Bet365 2.05
X	3.25 → 3.20▼	Bet365 3.20
2	3.30 → 3.10▼	Pinn 3.18 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 12.3% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:56 +4’	1.95	3.25	3.30
07:56 +8’	2.10▲	3.20▼	3.10▼
09:01 +2’	2.15▲	3.10▼	3.00▼
11:57 +8’	2.05▼	3.20▲	3.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:23 +39’	2.14	3.00	3.09
10:02 +2’	2.12▼	3.06▲	3.07▼
12:00 +5’	2.05▼	3.09▲	3.18▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente FBC 3–1–1 Encarnacion FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Encarnacion FC	2-3 HT 2-1	Independiente FBC
04/07/25 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Encarnacion FC	3-0 HT 2-0	Independiente FBC
28/03/25 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Independiente FBC	1-0 HT 1-0	Encarnacion FC
08/10/24 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Encarnacion FC	2-2 HT 0-1	Independiente FBC
01/07/24 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Independiente FBC	3-1 HT 1-1	Encarnacion FC

Standings · Paraguay Division Intermedia

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	General Caballero JLM	24	15	5	4	49	27	50
2	Deportivo Santaní	24	14	3	7	40	24	45
3	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes	23	13	6	4	33	21	45
4	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval	23	11	6	6	36	26	39
5	Sol de America	24	8	13	3	30	21	37
6	Resistencia FC	24	8	8	8	26	28	32
7	Independiente FBC	23	7	10	6	32	32	31
8	Carapegua	23	9	4	10	28	37	31
9	Club Atlético Tembetary	23	8	6	9	32	35	30
10	Paraguari AC	23	8	5	10	28	30	29
11	Fernando de la Mora	24	7	7	10	26	34	28
12	Deportivo Capiata	24	6	9	9	29	33	27
13	Guairena FC	24	6	6	12	21	32	24
14	3 de Noviembre	24	5	7	12	29	37	22
15	Tacuary	23	3	11	9	25	37	20
16	Encarnacion FC	23	5	4	14	22	32	19

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Independiente FBC	Encarnacion FC
Deportivo Santaní	2-1 W	0-1 L
Fernando de la Mora	0-0 D	0-0 D
3 de Noviembre	2-5 L	2-1 W
General Caballero JLM	0-0 D	0-1 L
Paraguari AC	2-3 L	0-1 L
Tacuary	2-2 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Independiente FBC (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Independiente FBC

DLDDDWDLDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/09	Deportivo Santaní Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
04/09	Fernando de la Mora Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
28/08	3 de Noviembre Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-3	2-5	7	4	L
22/08	General Caballero JLM Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
15/08	Guairena FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	2-1	7	9	W
07/08	Resistencia FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
02/08	Sol de America Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	1-1	6	8	D
29/07	Deportivo Capiata Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
18/07	Paraguari AC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	2-3	1	7	L
13/07	Tacuary Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-2	2-2	7	2	D

Encarnacion FC

LWDLLLWLWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/09	Tacuary Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
05/09	Club Atlético Tembetary Paraguay Division Intermedia	2-0	2-0	1	4	W
31/08	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-2	1-3	14	4	L
23/08	Carapegua Paraguay Division Intermedia	2-1	3-1	6	3	W
14/08	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-2	0-2	2	3	L
08/08	Paraguari AC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
02/08	Deportivo Santaní Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
26/07	Fernando de la Mora Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
19/07	3 de Noviembre Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	2-1	7	4	W
11/07	General Caballero JLM Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	0-1	7	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Independiente FBC vs Encarnacion FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente FBC win (43%). Probabilities: Independiente FBC 43%, draw 28%, Encarnacion FC 29%.

How many goals are expected in Independiente FBC vs Encarnacion FC?

The model expects 2.65 goals (Independiente FBC 1.49 · Encarnacion FC 1.17), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Independiente FBC vs Encarnacion FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.